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Endogenous Volatility at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Stabilization Policy

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  • Susanto Basu
  • Brent Bundick

Abstract

At the zero lower bound, the central bank's inability to offset shocks endogenously generates volatility. In this setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non-existence of an equilibrium. The form of the monetary policy rule is crucial for avoiding catastrophic outcomes. State-contingent optimal monetary and fiscal policies can attenuate this endogenous volatility by stabilizing the distribution of future outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility in the recent macroeconomic data.

Suggested Citation

  • Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2015. "Endogenous Volatility at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 21838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21838
    Note: EFG ME
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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