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Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?

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Abstract

We study the development of bank lending in the U.S. after four large jumps in uncertainty using an event study approach. We find that more liquid banks reduce lending less than banks with smaller liquidity ratios after a surge in uncertainty. Lending by smaller banks is also less responsive to increases in uncertainty. Banks with a higher capitalization ratio keep up lending to a greater extent, but the effect is only significant for banks which are not part of a multi-bank holding company. This heterogeneity across banks suggests that declines in bank lending following increases in uncertainty are partly the result of a reduced supply of bank loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?," Working Papers 194, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:194
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Bottero, Margherita, 2020. "Bank lending in uncertain times," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Hodula, Martin & Janků, Jan & Malovaná, Simona & Ngo, Ngoc Anh, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and their impact on global macro-financial stability: Literature and measurements," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Vy Ngoc Tra Nguyen, Long Hai Vo, 2018. "Bank Lending Decision under Uncertainty: The Case of Borrowers From European Peripheral Countries in the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 3-22, March.
    5. Alves, André Bernardo & Wanke, Peter & Antunes, Jorge & Chen, Zhongfei, 2020. "Endogenous network efficiency, macroeconomy, and competition: Evidence from the Portuguese banking industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Toh, Moau Yong & Zhang, Yongmin, 2022. "Bank capital and risk adjustment responses to economic uncertainty: Evidence from emerging Southeast Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Klein, Aaron, 2024. "Federal Reserve: Conflicts between Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation in Tackling Inflation," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 6(2), pages 1-42, March.
    8. Grimme, Christian & Henzel, Steffen R., 2024. "Uncertainty and credit conditions: Non-linear evidence from firm-level data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1307-1323.
    9. Almaghrabi, Khadija S., 2021. "Borrowing during periods of policy uncertainty: The role of foreign lenders," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. repec:gei:jnlfer:v:3:y:2018:i:1:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2022. "Monetary policy, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Larsen, Vegard H., 2023. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    13. Jéfferson Colombo & Peter Wanke & Jorge Antunes & Abul Kalam Azad, 2022. "Unveiling endogeneity between competition and efficiency in European banks: a robust econometric-neural network approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 1-46, March.
    14. Haddou, Samira, 2022. "International financial stress spillovers to bank lending: Do internal characteristics matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Khoo, Joye & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2021. "Does geopolitical uncertainty affect corporate financing? Evidence from MIDAS regression," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    16. Wang, Peiwen & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun, 2024. "Bank connectedness and excessive risk-taking: Some cross-country evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Grimme, Christian, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," MPRA Paper 79852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Berger, Allen N. & Guedhami, Omrane & Kim, Hugh H. & Li, Xinming, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank liquidity hoarding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    19. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2022. "U.S. banks’ lending, financial stability, and text-based sentiment analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 73-90.
    20. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2021. "Does economic uncertainty affect the soundness of banks? Evidence from emerging Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel, 2020. "Increasing Business Uncertainty and Credit Conditions in Times of Low and High Uncertainty: Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 8791, CESifo.
    22. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    23. Yaghoubi, Mona, 2024. "Executive characteristics as moderators: Exploring the impact of geopolitical risk on capital structure decisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    24. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni & Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2021. "U.S. Banks’ lending behaviour, financial stability, and investor sentiment: A textual analysis," Working Papers 2072/534915, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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