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Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

Author

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

  • Vegard H. Larsen

Abstract

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing macroeconomic variability is a decline in the volatility of other structural shocks (demand and supply). A change to a more responsive monetary policy regime also played a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen, 2015. "Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability," Working Papers No 7/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
    4. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    5. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    6. Ferrari, Davide & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños & Sebastián Cadavid-Sánchez & Gerardo Kattan-Rodríguez, 2018. "Targeting Long-term Rates in a Model with Financial Frictions and Regime Switching," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 159-219, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

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