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Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule

Author

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

Abstract

Recent studies offer evidence of reduced fiscal procyclicality to commodity price changes in resource‐rich countries—a feature commonly attributed to the adoption of fiscal policy rules. We revisit this issue and find that, by controlling for global activity shocks while allowing for time‐varying changes in both fiscal policy and the volatility of shocks, this finding does not hold. To show this we develop a time‐varying dynamic factor model, allowing for a multiple of shocks, stochastic volatility and time‐varying parameters, and estimate it on data for Norway, whose handling of resource wealth is often cited as exemplary.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 161-180, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:34:y:2019:i:2:p:161-180
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2669
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    Cited by:

    1. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2022. "The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1375-1402, September.
    2. Mikhail Andreyev & Mikhail Andreyev & Mikhail Andreyev, 2020. "Adding a fiscal rule into a DSGE model: How much does it change the forecasts?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps64, Bank of Russia.
    3. Luis N. Lanteri, 2016. "La política fiscal en economías exportadoras de materias primas. Evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, June.
    4. Güntner, Jochen & Öhlinger, Peter, 2022. "Oil price shocks and the hedging benefit of airline investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, "undated". "Is the Price Cap for Gas Useful? Evidence from European Countries," FEEM Working Papers 338790, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Assessing fiscal policy through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles," BIS Working Papers 638, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Words are the New Numbers: A Newsy Coincident Index of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 393-409, April.
    8. Hoda Youssef & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2018. "Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy," Working Papers 1175, Economic Research Forum, revised 29 Mar 2008.
    9. Ying Lun Cheung, 2024. "Identification of Time-Varying Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 76-94, January.
    10. Bernhard Tröster & Karin Küblböck, 2020. "Unprecedented but not Unpredictable: Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Commodity-Dependent Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1430-1449, December.
    11. Victor Pontines & Davaajargal Luvsannyam, 2023. "External Commodity Shocks and the Insulating Role of Fiscal Policy on Real Output: Evidence from a Commodity-Exporting Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2023-57, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    13. Coutinho, Leonor & Georgiou, Dimitrios & Heracleous, Maria & Michaelides, Alexander & Tsani, Stella, 2022. "Limiting fiscal procyclicality: Evidence from resource-dependent countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. Ziyan Zhao & Qingfeng Liu, 2024. "Time-Varying Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 2401, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    15. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    16. Riccardo “Jack” Lucchetti & Francesco Valentini, 2024. "Linear models with time-varying parameters: a comparison of different approaches," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(7), pages 3523-3545, December.
    17. World Bank, 2023. "Papua New Guinea Country Economic Memorandum," World Bank Publications - Reports 39995, The World Bank Group.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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