IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucn/oapubs/10197-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Computers, obsolescence, and productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

This paper develops a new technique for measuring the effect of computer usage on U.S. productivity growth. Standard National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) measures of the computer capital stock, which are constructed by weighting past investments according to a schedule for economic depreciation (the rate at which capital loses value as it ages), are shown to be inappropriate for growth accounting because they do not capture the effect of a unit of computer capital on productivity. This is due to technological obsolescence: machines that are still productive are retired because they are no longer near the technological frontier, and anticipation of retirement affects economic depreciation. Using a model that incorporates obsolescence, alternative stocks are developed that imply a larger computer-usage effect. This effect, together with the direct effect of increased productivity in the computer-producing sector, accounted for the improvement in U.S. productivity growth over 1996–1998 relative to the previous twenty years.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan, 2002. "Computers, obsolescence, and productivity," Open Access publications 10197/204, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/204
    File Function: Open Access version, 2002
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jane G. Gravelle, 1994. "The Economic Effects of Taxing Capital Income," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262071584, September.
    2. Feldstein, Martin S & Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Towards an Economic Theory of Replacement Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 393-423, May.
    3. D. W. Jorgenson & Z. Griliches, 1967. "The Explanation of Productivity Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 249-283.
    4. Stephen D. Oliner, 1993. "Constant-Quality Price Change, Depreciation, and Retirement of Mainframe Computers," NBER Chapters, in: Price Measurements and Their Uses, pages 19-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    7. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 1994. "Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big Is the Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 273-334.
    8. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2000. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 928-960, October.
    9. Hulten, Charles R. & Wykoff, Frank C., 1981. "The estimation of economic depreciation using vintage asset prices : An application of the Box-Cox power transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 367-396, April.
    10. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "The Business Cycle, Financial Performance, and the Retirement of Capital Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 474-496, April.
    11. Kevin J. Stiroh & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1999. "Information Technology and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 109-115, May.
    12. Stiroh, Kevin J, 1998. "Computers, Productivity, and Input Substitution," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 175-191, April.
    13. Hulten, Charles R & Wykoff, Frank C, 1996. "Issues in the Measurement of Economic Depreciation: Introductory Remarks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 10-23, January.
    14. Triplett, Jack E, 1996. "Depreciation in Production Analysis and in Income and Wealth Accounts: Resolution of an Old Debate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 93-115, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
    2. Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "Capital stocks, capital services, and depreciation: an integrated framework," Bank of England working papers 192, Bank of England.
    3. Nicholas Oulton, 2002. "ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 363-379.
    4. Kiley, Michael T., 2001. "Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 171-215, December.
    5. Pierre-Alain Muet, 2006. "Impacts économiques de la révolution numérique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(3), pages 347-375.
    6. W. Erwin Diewert, 2003. "Measuring Capital," NBER Working Papers 9526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Charlie Karlsson & Gunther Maier & Michaela Trippl & Iulia Siedschlag & Gavin Murphy, 2010. "ICT and Regional Economic Dynamics: A Literature Review," JRC Working Papers JRC59920, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. G. Atzeni & OA Carboni, 2001. "The economic effects of information technology: firm level evidence from the italian case," Working Paper CRENoS 200114, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. James Bessen, 2002. "Technology Adoption Costs and Productivity Growth: The Transition to Information Technology," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 443-469, April.
    10. Patrick Musso, 2006. "Capital Obsolescence, Growth Accounting and Total Factor Productivity," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 217-233.
    11. Kaliczka, Nándor, 2012. "A tartós eszközök értékcsökkenési mintájának empirikus becslése [Empirical estimation of the depreciation pattern of durable assets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 285-310.
    12. Jonathan Temple, 2002. "The Assessment: The New Economy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 241-264.
    13. Henry van der Wiel, 2001. "Does ICT boost Dutch productivity growth?," CPB Document 16.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Edquist, Harald & Henrekson, Magnus, 2004. "Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0562, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 23 Jan 2006.
    15. Tevlin, Stacey & Whelan, Karl, 2003. "Explaining the Investment Boom of the 1990s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
    16. Charles R. Hulten & Paul Schreyer, 2010. "GDP, Technical Change, and the Measurement of Net Income: the Weitzman Model Revisited," NBER Working Papers 16010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Szalavetz, Andrea, 2011. "Innovációvezérelt növekedés? [Innovation-driven growth?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 460-476.
    18. Lach, Saul & Shiff, Gil & Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2008. "Together but Apart: ICT and Productivity Growth in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 6732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Robert Inklaar & Mary O'Mahony & Marcel Timmer, 2005. "ICT AND EUROPE's PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE: INDUSTRY‐LEVEL GROWTH ACCOUNT COMPARISONS WITH THE UNITED STATES," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(4), pages 505-536, December.
    20. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computers--Economic aspects; Industrial productivity--United States; Depreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nicolas Clifton). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/educdie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.