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Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails

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  • Raven Molloy
  • Christopher L. Smith
  • Abigail Wozniak

Abstract

We examine how the distribution of employment tenure has changed over time. The fraction of workers with short tenure (less than one year) has fallen since the mid-1990s, a trend associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly held jobs and an increase in perceived job security among short-tenure workers. Meanwhile, the fraction of men with long tenure (20 years or more) has declined markedly, partly due to the secular shift away from the manufacturing sector and the decline in unionization, as well as an increase in mid-career separations during the 1970s and 1980s that reduced the likelihood of reaching long tenure.

Suggested Citation

  • Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2024. "Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(1), pages 35-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:59:y:2024:i:1:p:35-69
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0821-11843
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    Cited by:

    1. Serdar Birinci & Kurt See & Shu Lin Wee, 2020. "Job Applications and Labor Market Flows," Working Papers 2020-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Jan 2023.
    2. Alan Manning & Graham Mazeine, 2020. "Subjective job insecurity and the rise of the precariat: evidence from the UK, Germany and the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1712, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Moritz Kuhn & Gašper Ploj, 2020. "Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-Cycle Savings," CESifo Working Paper Series 8710, CESifo.
    4. Nicola Gagliardi & Elena Grinza & François Rycx, 2021. "Can You Teach an Old Dog New Tricks? New Evidence on the Impact of Tenure on Productivity," Working Papers CEB 21-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Charles L. Baum, 2022. "Seven jobs in a lifetime? An analysis of employee tenure," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 543-567, April.
    6. Nicola Gagliardi & Elena Grinza & François Rycx, 2023. "Workers’ tenure and firm productivity: New evidence from matched employer‐employee panel data," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 3-33, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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