IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27566.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
  • John Coglianese

Abstract

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment. Step 1: estimate individual transition hazards across employment, temporary layoff, permanent layoff, quitter, entrant, and out of the labor force, with each hazard depending on an aggregate component as well as an individual's labor force history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of individual labor force histories. Applying our approach to the July Blue Chip forecast of the COVID-19 recession, we project that 1.6 million workers laid off in April 2020 remain unemployed six months later. Total long-term unemployment rises thereafter and eventually reaches more 4.5 million individuals unemployed for more than 26 weeks and almost 2 million individuals unemployed for more than 46 weeks. Long-term unemployment rises even more in a more pessimistic recovery scenario, but remains below the level in the Great Recession due to a high amount of labor market churn.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & John Coglianese, 2020. "Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession," NBER Working Papers 27566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27566
    Note: EFG LS PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27566.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
    2. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & John Coglianese & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2019. "The Macro Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions: a Measurement Error Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(1), pages 227-279.
    3. Andreas I. Mueller & Johannes Spinnewijn & Giorgio Topa, 2021. "Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence, and Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 324-363, January.
    4. Alan B. Krueger & Alexandre Mas & Xiaotong Niu, 2017. "The Evolution of Rotation Group Bias: Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 258-264, May.
    5. Rivera Drew, Julia A. & Flood, Sarah & Warren, John Robert, 2014. "Making full use of the longitudinal design of the Current Population Survey: Methods for linking records across 16 months\m{1}," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, IOS Press, issue 3, pages 121-144.
    6. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Nonparticipation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 7-54.
    7. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    8. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    9. Shigeru Fujita & Giuseppe Moscarini, 2017. "Recall and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3875-3916, December.
    10. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2019. "Consumer Spending During Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications," Working Papers 2019-006, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    11. Hie Joo Ahn & James Hamilton, . "Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock," Working Papers 2020-60, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    13. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 25625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & John Grigsby & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Erik Hurst & Christopher Johann Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession," Working Papers 2020-58_Revision, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    15. Gregor Jarosch & Laura Pilossoph, 2019. "Statistical Discrimination and Duration Dependence in the Job Finding Rate," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 1631-1665.
    16. Peter Ganong & Pascal J. Noel, 2019. "Consumer Spending During Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications," NBER Working Papers 25417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-321, March.
    18. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matt Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 2020-83, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    19. Hie Joo Ahn & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 554-569, July.
    20. Bartik, Alexander & Bertrand, Marianne & Lin, Feng & Rothstein, Jesse & Unrath, Matthew, 2020. "Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15k6d98m, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    21. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matt Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis," NBER Working Papers 27613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Danny Yagan, 2019. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2505-2558.
    23. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2019. "Consumer Spending during Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2383-2424, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Till von Wachter, 2020. "Lost Generations: Long‐Term Effects of the COVID‐19 Crisis on Job Losers and Labour Market Entrants, and Options for Policy," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 549-590, September.
    2. Malak Kandoussi & François Langot, 2021. "On the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on US unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2021-01, TEPP.
    3. Eliza Forsythe & Lisa B. Kahn & Fabian Lange & David G. Wiczer, 2020. "Searching, Recalls, and Tightness: An Interim Report on the COVID Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ioannis Kospentaris, 2021. "Unobserved Heterogeneity and Skill Loss in a Structural Model of Duration Dependence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 280-303, January.
    2. Stefano DellaVigna & Jörg Heining & Johannes F. Schmieder & Simon Trenkle, 2020. "Evidence on Job Search Models from a Survey of Unemployed Workers in Germany," NBER Working Papers 27037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Johannes Spinnewijn, 2020. "The Trade‐Off between Insurance and Incentives in Differentiated Unemployment Policies," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 101-127, March.
    4. Akos Horvath & Benjamin S. Kay & Carlo Wix, 2021. "The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Lusher, Lester & Schnorr, Geoffrey & Taylor, Rebecca L.C., 2021. "Unemployment Insurance as a Worker Indiscipline Device? Evidence from Scanner Data," IZA Discussion Papers 14105, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Gabrielle Penrose & Gianni La Cava, 2021. "Job Loss, Subjective Expectations and Household Spending," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Carl Singleton, 2018. "Long‐Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: Evidence from UK Stocks and Flows," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 105-126, May.
    9. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matt Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis," NBER Working Papers 27613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hie Joo Ahn, 2016. "Heterogeneity in the Dynamics of Disaggregate Unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Glancy, David, 2021. "Housing bust, bank lending & employment: Evidence from multimarket banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Mr. Ippei Shibata, 2019. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/282, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Gopi Shah Goda & Emilie Jackson & Lauren Hersch Nicholas & Sarah See Stith, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Older Workers' Employment and Social Security Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 29083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2019. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 19-312, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    15. Montalvo, José G. & Piolatto, Amedeo & Raya, Josep, 2020. "Transaction-tax evasion in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    16. François Gerard & Joana Naritomi, 2021. "Job Displacement Insurance and (the Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 899-942, March.
    17. Michele Belot & Philipp Kircher & Paul Muller, 2021. "Eliciting time preferences when income and consumption vary: Theory, validation & application to job search," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-013/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    19. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Matthew Tudball, 2019. "Long Time Out: Unemployment and Joblessness in Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 355-397.
    20. Borja Gambau & Juan C. Palomino & Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian, 2021. "COVID-19 restrictions in the US: wage vulnerability by education, race and gender," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2021-08, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27566. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.