IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp5057.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of U.S. Unemployment Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Feng, Shuaizhang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

  • Hu, Yingyao

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Using recent results in the measurement error literature, we show that the official U.S. unemployment rates substantially underestimate the true levels of unemployment, due to misclassification errors in labor force status in Current Population Surveys. Our closed-form identification of the misclassification probabilities relies on the key assumptions that the misreporting behaviors only depend on the true values and that the true labor force status dynamics satisfy a Markov-type property. During the period of 1996 to 2009, the corrected monthly unemployment rates are 1 to 4.6 percentage points (25% to 45%) higher than the official rates, and are more sensitive to changes in business cycles. Labor force participation rates, however, are not affected by this correction. We also provide results for various subgroups of the U.S. population defined by gender, race and age.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2010. "Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of U.S. Unemployment Rates," IZA Discussion Papers 5057, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp5057.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1999. "The Measurement of Unemployment: An Empirical Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 147-162, January.
    2. Thierry Magnac & Michael Visser, 1999. "Transition Models With Measurement Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 466-474, August.
    3. Peracchi, Franco & Welch, Finis, 1995. "How representative are matched cross-sections? Evidence from the Current Population Survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 153-179, July.
    4. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1995. "Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 207-216, May.
    5. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843, Elsevier.
    6. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    7. Henry S. Farber, 1999. "Alternative and Part-Time Employment Arrangements as a Response to Job Loss," NBER Working Papers 7002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hu, Yingyao, 2008. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error using instrumental variables: A general solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-61, May.
    9. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    10. Farber, Henry S, 1999. "Alternative and Part-Time Employment Arrangements as a Response to Job Loss," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 142-169, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Hu, Yingyao, 2017. "The Econometrics of Unobservables -- Latent Variable and Measurement Error Models and Their Applications in Empirical Industrial Organization and Labor Economics [The Econometrics of Unobservables]," Economics Working Paper Archive 64578, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised 2021.
    3. Shibata, Ippei, 2022. "Reassessing classification errors in the analysis of labor market dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Matteo Picchio, 2012. "The Dynamics of Unemployment, Temporary and Permanent Employment in Italy," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, in: Tindara Addabbo & Giovanni Solinas (ed.), Non-Standard Employment and Quality of Work. The Case of Italy, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 127-147, AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
    5. Hyslop, Dean R. & Townsend, Wilbur, 2017. "Employment misclassification in survey and administrative reports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 19-23.
    6. Barry T. Hirsch, 2005. "Why Do Part-Time Workers Earn Less? The Role of Worker and Job Skills," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 58(4), pages 525-551, July.
    7. Paul Sullivan, 2009. "Estimation of an Occupational Choice Model when Occupations are Misclassified," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    8. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "The Heterogeneity and Cyclical Sensitivity of Unemployment: An Exploration of German Labor Market Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 84, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Stephen R. G. Jones & Craig Riddell, 2000. "The Dynamics of US Labor Force Attachment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0011, Econometric Society.
    10. Florence Jaumotte, 2005. "Les femmes sur le marché du travail : Évidence empirique sur le rôle des politiques économiques et autres déterminants dans les pays de l'OCDE," Revue économique de l'OCDE, Éditions OCDE, vol. 2003(2), pages 57-123.
    11. Ugo Trivellato & Anna Giraldo, 2006. "Assessing the ‘Choosiness’ of Job‐seekers. An Exploratory Approach and Evidence for Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-36, March.
    12. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas, 2017. "Misclassification in binary choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 295-311.
    13. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    14. Olga Kuzmina, 2023. "Employment Flexibility and Capital Structure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(9), pages 4992-5017, September.
    15. repec:pri:cepsud:171farber is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Robert W. Fairlie & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2015. "Behind the GATE Experiment: Evidence on Effects of and Rationales for Subsidized Entrepreneurship Training," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 125-161, May.
    17. Battistin, Erich & Chesher, Andrew, 2014. "Treatment effect estimation with covariate measurement error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 707-715.
    18. Henry S. Farber, 2005. "What do we know about job loss in the United States? evidence from the displaced workers survey, 1984-2004," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 29(Q II), pages 13-28.
    19. Pietro Garibaldi & Etienne Wasmer, 2005. "Equilibrium Search Unemployment, Endogenous Participation, And Labor Market Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 851-882, June.
    20. Fagan, Colette. & Norman, Helen. & Smith, Mark. & Gonzalez Menendez, María C., 2014. "In search of good quality part-time employment," ILO Working Papers 994839683402676, International Labour Organization.
    21. Bellemare, Charles, 2007. "A life-cycle model of outmigration and economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 553-576, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Population Survey; unemployment rate; labor force participation rate; misclassification; measurement error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.