IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/macann/doi10.1086-723582.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Menzio

Abstract

I study a search equilibrium model of the labor market in which workers have stubborn beliefs about their labor market prospects, i.e. beliefs about their probability of finding a job and the wage they will earn that do not respond to aggregate fluctuations in fundamentals. I show that, when workers have stubborn beliefs, the response of the wage bargained by a firm and a worker to aggregate shocks is dampened. As a result, the response of labor market tightness, job-finding probability, unemployment and vacancies to aggregate fluctuations is amplified. I show that stubborn beliefs generate cyclical inefficiencies in the labor market that can be corrected with countercyclical employment subsidies. I find that the response of the labor market to negative shocks is the same even if only a small fraction of workers has stubborn beliefs. In contrast, if the fraction of workers with stubborn beliefs is small, the response of the labor market to positive shocks is approximately the same as under rational expectations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Menzio, 2023. "Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 239-297.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/723582
    DOI: 10.1086/723582
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/723582
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/723582
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/723582?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino, 2019. "Debt Constraints and Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1926-1991.
    2. John Kennan, 2010. "Private Information, Wage Bargaining and Employment Fluctuations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 633-664.
    3. Andreas I. Mueller & Johannes Spinnewijn & Giorgio Topa, 2021. "Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence, and Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 324-363, January.
    4. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    5. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 25625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 4-37, July.
    7. Grossman, Sanford J. & Perry, Motty, 1986. "Sequential bargaining under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 120-154, June.
    8. Gul, Faruk & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1988. "On Delay in Bargaining with One-Sided Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 601-611, May.
    9. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    10. Azariadis, Costas, 1975. "Implicit Contracts and Underemployment Equilibria," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1183-1202, December.
    11. John J. Conlon & Laura Pilossoph & Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2018. "Labor Market Search With Imperfect Information and Learning," Working Papers 2018-068, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ilse Lindenlaub, 2022. "Comment on "Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 298-313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2023. "Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jake Bradley & Lukas Mann, 2023. "Learning about labour markets," Discussion Papers 2023/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    4. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2023. "Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 10336, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David G. Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2023. "Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Leena Rudanko, 2008. "Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk in a Frictional Labor Market," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2023. "Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 10336, CESifo.
    5. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    6. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    7. Ryan Chahrour & Sanjay K. Chugh & Tristan Potter, 2014. "Searching for Wages in an Estimated Labor Matching Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 867, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Dec 2016.
    8. Clerc, Pierrick, 2018. "Alternating offers with asymmetric information and the unemployment volatility puzzle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 87-91.
    9. Dean Corbae & Andrew Glover & Daphne Chen, 2013. "Can Employer Credit Checks Create Poverty Traps?," 2013 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008. "Cyclical Wages in a Search-and-Bargaining Model with Large Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 65-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Edouard Challe & Julien Matheron & Xavier Ragot & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramirez, 2017. "Precautionary saving and aggregate demand," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 435-478, July.
    12. Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2011. "Cyclical behavior of unemployment and job vacancies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 214-225.
    13. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2014. "Reference Dependence and Labor Market Fluctuations," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 159-200.
    14. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
    15. Niklas Engbom, 2019. "Application Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 1170, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    17. Lagakos, David & Ordoñez, Guillermo L., 2011. "Which workers get insurance within the firm?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 632-645.
    18. Merkl, Christian & Stüber, Heiko, 2024. "Wage and employment cyclicalities at the establishment level," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Philip Jung & Keith Kuester, 2015. "Optimal Labor-Market Policy in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 124-156, April.
    20. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne K. Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2021. "The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 9326, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/723582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/MA .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.