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Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations

Author

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  • Balleer, Almut
  • Duernecker, Georg
  • Forstner, Susanne
  • Goensch, Johannes

Abstract

Recent research documents mounting evidence for sizable and persistent biases in individual labor market expectations. This paper incorporates subjective expectations into a general equilibrium labor market model and studies the implications of biased expectations for wage bargaining, vacancy creation, worker flows and labor market policies. Importantly, we find that under the widely used period-by-period Nash bargaining protocol, the model generates a counterfactual relationship between workers' job separation expectations and wages. Instead, a wage setting process with less frequent wage renegotiations is found to be empirically consistent. Moreover, we show that the presence of biased beliefs can qualitatively alter the equilibrium effects of labor market policies. Lastly, when allowing for biased firms' beliefs, we establish that only the difference between firms' and workers' biases matters for the bargained wage but not the size of biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2023. "Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18019
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    2. Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2023. "Biased expectations and labor market outcomes: Evidence from German survey data and implications for the East-West wage gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 18005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bachmann, Ronald & Klauser, Roman, 2024. "How do workers react to increased job loss fears? The role of training and job mobility," Ruhr Economic Papers 1137, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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