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Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37

Author

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  • Guido Menzio

Abstract

I study a search equilibrium model of the labor market in which workers have stubborn beliefs about their labor market prospects, i.e. beliefs about their probability of finding a job and the wage they will earn that do not respond to aggregate fluctuations in fundamentals. I show that, when workers have stubborn beliefs, the response of the wage bargained by a firm and a worker to aggregate shocks is dampened. As a result, the response of labor market tightness, job-finding probability, unemployment and vacancies to aggregate fluctuations is amplified. I show that stubborn beliefs generate cyclical inefficiencies in the labor market that can be corrected with countercyclical employment subsidies. I find that the response of the labor market to negative shocks is the same even if only a small fraction of workers has stubborn beliefs. In contrast, if the fraction of workers with stubborn beliefs is small, the response of the labor market to positive shocks is approximately the same as under rational expectations.
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Suggested Citation

  • Guido Menzio, 2022. "Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 239-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14669
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Kennan, 2010. "Private Information, Wage Bargaining and Employment Fluctuations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 633-664.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilse Lindenlaub, 2022. "Comment on "Stubborn Beliefs in Search Equilibrium"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 298-313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2023. "Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18019, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Jake Bradley & Lukas Mann, 2023. "Learning about labour markets," Discussion Papers 2023/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    4. Gregory, Victoria & Menzio, Guido & Wiczer, David, 2025. "The alpha beta gamma of the labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2023. "Biased expectations and labor market outcomes: Evidence from German survey data and implications for the East-West wage gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 18005, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. William Du & Adrian Monninger & Xincheng Qiu & Tao Wang, 2025. "Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 25-23, Bank of Canada.
    7. Bradley, Jake & Mann, Lukas, 2024. "Learning about labor markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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