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The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Across OECD Countries

  • Murat Tasci

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Pedro Amaral

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

We show that the inability of a standardly-calibrated stochastic labor search-and-matching model to account for the observed volatility of unemployment and vacancies extends beyond U.S. data to a set of OECD countries -- the volatility puzzle is ubiquitous. We also argue that using cross-country data is helpful in evaluating the relative merits of the model alternatives that have appeared in the literature. In illustrating this point, we take the solution proposed in Hagedorn and Manovskii (2008) and show that it continues to predict counterfactually low volatility in labor market variables for countries that exhibit sufficiently low persistence in their estimated productivity processes.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 450.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:450
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  2. Robert Shimer, 2004. "The Consequences of Rigid Wages in Search Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 469-479, 04/05.
  3. Lee E. Ohanian & Andrea Raffo, 2011. "Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: new measurement and implications for business cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 1039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01.
  5. Murat Tasci, 2007. "On-the-job search and labor market reallocation," Working Paper 0725, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  7. Manuel Toledo & Jose I. Silva, 2005. "Labor Turnover Costs and the Cyclical Behavior of Vacancies and Unemployment," 2005 Meeting Papers 775, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Wouter J. den Haan & Garey Ramey & Joel Watson, 1997. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 6275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Costain, James S. & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1120-1155, April.
  10. Peter Whiteford, 1995. "The Use of Replacement Rates in International Comparisons of Benefit Systems," Discussion Papers 0054, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
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  12. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  15. Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2011. "Cyclical behavior of unemployment and job vacancies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 214-225.
  16. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Wasmer, Etienne, 2010. "The Cyclical Volatility of Labor Markets under Frictional Financial Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5131, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, 01.
  18. Julen ESTEBAN-PRETEL & NAKAJIMA Ryo & TANAKA Ryuichi, 2011. "Japan's Labor Market Cyclicality and the Volatility Puzzle," Discussion papers 11040, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  19. Shigeru Fugita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "Job matching and propagation," Working Papers 06-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  20. van Ours, J.C. & Ridder, G., 1992. "Vacancies and recruitment of new employees," Other publications TiSEM 9acc708a-0885-46a2-aef5-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  21. van Ours, Jan & Ridder, Geert, 1992. "Vacancies and the Recruitment of New Employees," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(2), pages 138-55, April.
  22. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2006. "The cyclical upgrading of labor and on-the-job search," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-477, August.
  23. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
  24. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, June.
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