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House Prices and Job Losses

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  • Gabor Pinter

    (Bank of England
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))

Abstract

Why are house prices -80% correlated with job losses over the UK business cycle? My paper studies this striking fact together with the strong comovements between house prices and labour market variables in general. First, a regional panel is estimated to quantify the impact of house prices on the unemployment, job finding and job separation rates, whereby rejection rates of planning applications are used as instruments to find exogenous variation in house prices. Second, an orthogonalised VAR is used to estimate the aggregate impact of house price shocks. Both methods confirm the large impact of house price shocks on labour market variables and credit supply. To understand the mechanism, a general equilibrium model with collateral constraints, endogenous job separation and housing shocks is confronted with macroeconomic data via Bayesian methods. The results suggest that shocks to house prices (i) explain about 10% of output fluctuations and about 20% of fluctuations in corporate credit, unemployment and job separation rates via the collateral channel over the forecast horizon, and (ii) were a major cause in triggering the 1990 and 2008 recessions in the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabor Pinter, 2015. "House Prices and Job Losses," Discussion Papers 1507, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1507
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. House Prices and Job Losses
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2015-12-11 13:30:42
    2. 'House Prices and Job Losses'
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2015-12-11 06:15:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2020. "Home Values and Firm Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2225-2270, July.
    2. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Kristian S Blickle, 2016. "Housing collateral and small firm activity in Europe," BIS Working Papers 575, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez‐Martinez, 2019. "Economic precariousness: A new channel in the housing market cycle," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 1030-1043, April.
    4. Kristian Blickle, 2017. "Local Banks, Credit Supply, and House Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1811, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    5. Teodora Cristina Barbu & Mariana Vu?a & Adina Ionela Strachinaru & Sorin Iulian Cioaca, 2017. "An Assessment of the Immigration Impact on the International Housing Price," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 682-682, August.
    6. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; House Prices; Financial Frictions; Labour Market Frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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