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House prices and job losses

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  • Pinter, Gabor

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

What explains the strong comovement between house prices and job losses over the UK business cycle? To study this question, I build a general equilibrium model with collateral constraints, endogenous job separation and housing shocks, and confront it with macroeconomic data via Bayesian methods. The results suggest that shocks to house prices (i) explain about 10-20% of output fluctuations and about 20%–30% of fluctuations in unemployment and job separation rates via the collateral channel, and (ii) were a major cause in triggering the 1990 and 2008 recessions in the United Kingdom.

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  • Pinter, Gabor, 2015. "House prices and job losses," Bank of England working papers 569, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0569
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. House Prices and Job Losses
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2015-12-11 13:30:42
    2. 'House Prices and Job Losses'
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2015-12-11 06:15:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2020. "Home Values and Firm Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2225-2270, July.
    2. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Kristian S Blickle, 2016. "Housing collateral and small firm activity in Europe," BIS Working Papers 575, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez‐Martinez, 2019. "Economic precariousness: A new channel in the housing market cycle," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 1030-1043, April.
    4. Blickle, Kristian, 2022. "Local banks, credit supply, and house prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 876-896.
    5. Javier Ferri & Francisca Herranz-Baez, 2023. "Building on fiscal policy: government consumption and the residential sector. When helping hurts," Working Papers 2023-01, FEDEA.
    6. Teodora Cristina Barbu & Mariana Vu?a & Adina Ionela Strachinaru & Sorin Iulian Cioaca, 2017. "An Assessment of the Immigration Impact on the International Housing Price," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 682-682, August.
    7. Garreth Rule, 2015. "Understanding the central bank balance sheet," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 32, April.
    8. Bunn, Philip & Chadha, Jagjit & Lazarowicz, Thomas & Millard, Stephen & Rockall, Emma, 2021. "Household debt and labour supply," Bank of England working papers 941, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; house prices; financial frictions; labour market frictions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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