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Environmental Policy, Full-Employment Models, and Employment: A Critical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Marc A. C. Hafstead
  • Roberton C. Williams
  • Yunguang Chen

Abstract

This paper assesses the use of full-employment computable-general equilibrium (CGE) models to evaluate labor-market effects of environmental policy. Specifically, it compares a full-employment model to two alternatives: a Balistreri model that introduces unemployment through an endogenous wage premium and a search-CGE model that uses a search-and-matching friction to introduce unemployment (extending Hafstead and Williams). We find that some key results are robust across the three models, such as the reallocation of labor across sectors in response to a carbon tax, but that small differences for each industry add up to larger differences across models at the aggregate level. Applying a full-time-equivalent assumption to the full-employment model seriously overestimates the economy-wide net change in jobs (by a factor of more than 2.4 for a carbon tax with revenues returned lump sum and by a factor of almost 2.7 when carbon tax revenue reduces payroll taxes) relative to the search-CGE model.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc A. C. Hafstead & Roberton C. Williams & Yunguang Chen, 2022. "Environmental Policy, Full-Employment Models, and Employment: A Critical Analysis," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 199-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/716598
    DOI: 10.1086/716598
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsigas, Marinos & Bernard, Jennifer, 2020. "Costly labor adjustments to trade shocks in CGE analysis," Conference papers 333159, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Xavier Pautrel, 2018. "Environmental Policy and Health in the Presence of Labor Market Imperfections," TEPP Working Paper 2018-09, TEPP.
    3. Heutel, Garth & Zhang, Xin, 2021. "Efficiency wages, unemployment, and environmental policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Sager, Lutz, 2023. "The global consumer incidence of carbon pricing: Evidence from trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    5. Gibson, John & Heutel, Garth, 2023. "Pollution and labor market search externalities over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Marten, Alex L. & Schreiber, Andrew & Wolverton, Ann, 2024. "Occupational Affiliation and the Incidence of Environmental Regulation," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 348909, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    7. Noe Reidt, 2021. "Climate Policies and Labor Markets in Developing Countries," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/351, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    8. Luxin Yang & Yucheng Liu, 2025. "Environmental governance, technological innovation and employment structure change: evidence from China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 12067-12090, May.
    9. Jared C. Carbone & Linda T.M. Bui & Don Fullerton & Sergey Paltsev & Ian Sue Wing, 2022. "When and How to Use Economy-Wide Models for Environmental Policy Analysis," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 447-465, October.
    10. Marc A. C. Hafstead & Roberton C. Williams III, 2020. "Jobs and Environmental Regulation," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 192-240.
    11. Jiyu Zhao & Ning Zhang, 2023. "Environmental regulation and labor market: a bibliometric analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6095-6116, July.
    12. Kenneth Castellanos & Garth Heutel, 2024. "Unemployment, Labor Mobility, and Climate Policy," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-40.
    13. Shu Kedong & Lu Yueyu & Yu Ziyan & Kuai Peng & Zhang Shu’an, 2021. "Influences of environmental regulations on skill premium: mediating effect of industrial structure optimization," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(2), pages 245-273, April.
    14. Srabashi Ray & Thomas W. Hertel, 2025. "Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of Conservation Policies: The Role of Labor Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(5), pages 1147-1193, May.
    15. Lynn Riggs & Livvy Mitchell, 2021. "Methodology for Modelling Distributional Impacts of Emissions Budgets on Employment in New Zealand," Motu Working Papers 21_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    16. Antosiewicz, Marek & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo & Lewandowski, Piotr & Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan, 2022. "Distributional effects of emission pricing in a carbon-intensive economy: The case of Poland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Winchester, Niven & Riggs, Lynn & Mitchell, Livvy & White, Dominic, 2025. "Searching for a just transition: Micro-level employment impacts of climate policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Lynn Riggs & Livvy Mitchell, 2021. "Predicted Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Employment," Motu Working Papers 21_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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