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The Cyclical Volatility of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies: Evidence from Italy

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  • Cardullo, Gabriele
  • Guerrazzi, Marco

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the fluctuations of unemployment and vacancies in the Italian labour market over the last twenty years. For reasons of data availability on unfilled job openings, this period is split in two parts. The former is covered by a help-wanted time series, while the latter is analyzed by means of a harmonized vacancy rate. In both periods, in line with previous findings on the unemployment volatility puzzle, we find that the labour market tightness indicator is much more volatile than productivity. Moreover, we show that a matching model with segmented labour markets and on-the-job search has the potential to provide a rationale for this pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Cardullo, Gabriele & Guerrazzi, Marco, 2013. "The Cyclical Volatility of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies: Evidence from Italy," MPRA Paper 51726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51726
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    2. Sergio Destefanis & Raquel Fonseca, 2007. "Matching Efficiency and Labour Market Reform in Italy: A Macroeconometric Assessment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(1), pages 57-84, March.
    3. Gartner, Hermann & Merkl, Christian & Rothe, Thomas, 2012. "Sclerosis and large volatilities: Two sides of the same coin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 106-109.
    4. Michele Battisti, 2013. "Reassessing Segmentation In The Labour Market: An Application For Italy 1995–2004," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 38-55, May.
    5. Amaral, Pedro S. & Tasci, Murat, 2016. "The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies across OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 184-201.
    6. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    7. Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2011. "Cyclical behavior of unemployment and job vacancies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 214-225.
    8. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Etienne Wasmer, 2013. "The Cyclical Volatility of Labor Markets under Frictional Financial Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-221, January.
    9. Katharine G. Abraham, 1987. "Help-Wanted Advertising, Job Vacancies, and Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 207-248.
    10. Dale Mortensen & Eva Nagypal, 2007. "More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(3), pages 327-347, July.
    11. Zhang Min, 2008. "Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Job Vacancies: A Comparison between Canada and the United States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-37, October.
    12. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, January.
    13. Silva, José Ignacio & Toledo, Manuel, 2009. "Labor Turnover Costs And The Cyclical Behavior Of Vacancies And Unemployment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 76-96, May.
    14. Gabriele Cardullo, 2010. "Matching Models Under Scrutiny: An Appraisal Of The Shimer Puzzle," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 622-656, September.
    15. Robert G. Valletta, 2005. "Help-wanted advertising and job vacancies," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan21.
    16. Anna M. Falzoni & Alessandra Venturini & Claudia Villosio, 2007. "Skilled and Unskilled Wage Dynamics in Italy in the ‘90s: Changes in the individual characteristics, institutions, trade and technology," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 61, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    17. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2006. "The cyclical upgrading of labor and on-the-job search," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-477, August.
    18. Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Search And Stochastic Dynamics In The Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale For The Shimer Puzzle," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 561-586, November.
    19. cipollone piero, 2001. "Is the Italian Labour market segmented?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 400, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Arthur J. Hosios, 1990. "On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 279-298.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amaral, Pedro S. & Tasci, Murat, 2016. "The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies across OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 184-201.
    2. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Unemployment And Vacancies With Loss Of Skills During Unemployment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1277-1304, September.
    3. Guerrazzi, Marco, 2014. "Workforce ageing and the training propensity of Italian firms: cross-sectional evidence from the INDACO survey," MPRA Paper 56826, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic fluctuations; Italian labour market; Shimer puzzle; Market segmentation; On-the-job search.;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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