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Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?

Author

Listed:
  • Victoria Gregory
  • Guido Menzio
  • David Wiczer

Abstract

We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the aggregate US labor market during and after the coronavirus pandemic. The model is designed to capture the heterogeneity of the transitions of individual workers across states of unemployment and employment and across different employers. The model is designed also to capture the trade-offs in the choice between temporary and permanent layoffs. Under reasonable parametrizations of the model, the lockdown instituted to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus is shown to have long-lasting negative effects on unemployment. This is because the lockdown disproportionately disrupts the employment of workers who need years to find stable jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:88110
    DOI: 10.21034/qr.4011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Guido Menzio & Irina Telyukova & Ludo Visschers, 2016. "Directed Search over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 38-62, January.
    4. Fernando E. Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," NBER Working Papers 26981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David W. Berger & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Simon Mongey, 2020. "An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine," NBER Working Papers 26901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2020. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," NBER Working Papers 26918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
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    12. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew T. Levin & Mickey D. Levy, 2020. "Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications," NBER Working Papers 27369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Recovery from COVID-19: Decentralization, Democratization, Demand, Distribution, and Demography," GLO Discussion Paper Series 631, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Andrea Aspri & Elena Beretta & Alberto Gandolfi & Etienne Wasmer, 2020. "Mortality containment vs. economics opening: optimal policies in a SEIARD model," Papers 2006.00085, arXiv.org.
    4. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2020. "The Lockdown Impact on Unemployment for Heterogeneous Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 13439, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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