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Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits


The distribution of unemployment duration in our equilibrium matching model with spell-dependent unemployment bene?ts displays a time-varying exit rate. Building on Semi-Markov processes, we translate these exit rates into an expres- sion for the aggregate unemployment rate. Structural estimation using a German micro-data set (SOEP) allows us to discuss the effects of a recent unemployment bene?t reform (Hartz IV). The reform reduced unemployment by only 0.3%. Contrary to general beliefs, we ?nd that both employed and unemployed workers gain (the latter from an intertemporal perspective). The reason is the rise in the net wage caused by more vacancies per unemployed worker.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 54 (2013)
Issue (Month): (November)
Pages: 1159-1198

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Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:54:y:2013:i::p:1159-1198
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