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Asymmetry in the Unemployment–Output Relationship Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Transition Economies

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  • Emrah Ismail Cevik

    (Department of Econometrics, Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak 67100, Turkey.)

  • Sel Dibooglu

    (Department of Economics, University of Missouri St Louis, 408 SSB, One University Blvd., St Louis, MO 63121, USA.)

  • Salih Barişik

    (Department of Economics, Gaziosmanpaşa University, Tokat 60150, Turkey.)

Abstract

This study examines the presence of asymmetry in Okun's law for nine transition economies by means of a Markov regime-switching model. We examine the relationship between unemployment and real GDP to ascertain whether such changes are substantially different in downswing versus upswing regimes. The nonlinear model outperforms the linear model in all transition economies in the sample except for Slovenia. There is evidence that the Okun coefficients vary across regimes and countries. In most countries, cyclical unemployment is more sensitive to cyclical output in downswing regimzes than upswing regimes. We also find recoveries entail poor job growth in most transition economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Salih Barişik, 2013. "Asymmetry in the Unemployment–Output Relationship Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 557-581, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:55:y:2013:i:4:p:557-581
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kamel Helali & Thouraya Boujelbene Dammak, 2019. "Examining the Role of Structural Change in a Phillips Curve: Bivariate GARCH DCC Analysis," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 385-393, September.
    2. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Bod’a, Martin & Považanová, Mariana, 2021. "Output-unemployment asymmetry in Okun coefficients for OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-323.
    4. Brian Tavonga Mazorodze & Noureen Siddiq, 2018. "On the Unemployment Output Relation in South Africa: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(5), pages 167-178.
    5. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    6. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa, 2017. "Okun’s law: evidence of 13 selected developed countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 297-310, April.
    7. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Amado Peiró, 2015. "Asymmetry in the relationship between unemployment and the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 683-697, March.
    8. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    9. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.
    10. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "GDP-Employment decoupling and the slow-down of productivity growth in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201912, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. El-hadj Bah & Josef C. Brada, 2014. "Labor Markets in the Transition Economies: An Overview," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 11(1), pages 3-53, June.
    12. Muhammad Saeed Meo & Bezon Kumar & Sumayya Chughtai & Vina Javed Khan & Muhammad Khyzer Bin Dost & Qasim Ali Nisar, 2023. "Impact of Unemployment and Governance on Poverty in Pakistan: A Fresh Insight from Non-linear ARDL Co-integration Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(5), pages 1007-1024, October.
    13. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    14. Martin Boďa & Petra Medveďová & Mariana Považanová, 2015. "(A)symetria v Okunovom zákone v štátoch Vyšehradskej skupiny [(A)symmetry in Okun's Law in the Visegrad Group Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(6), pages 741-758.
    15. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.

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