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On GDP-employment decoupling in Germany

Author

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  • Klinger, Sabine

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; IOS ; Universität Regensburg)

Abstract

"This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as well as an autonomous employment component capturing other factors than real output. As one result, we measure a permanent decline in Verdoorn's coefficient as well as pronounced effects of the autonomous employment component in the recent years. The development of the estimated impact parameters is shown to crucially depend on structural change, but also on labour availability and business expectations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "On GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201421, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201421
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    18. Marloes Graaf-Zijl & Albert Horst & Daniel Vuuren & Hugo Erken & Rob Luginbuhl, 2015. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession in the Netherlands: Economic Mechanisms and Policy Implications," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 415-434, December.
    19. Walwei, Ulrich, 2015. "From deregulation to re-regulation : trend reversal in German labour market institutions and its possible implications," IAB-Discussion Paper 201510, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; ökonomische Theorie ; Schätzung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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