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How will unemployment fare following the recession?

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  • Edward S. Knotek
  • Stephen J. Terry

Abstract

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen more than four percentage points. Similar sharp increases in unemployment have occurred in other severe recessions, such as those in 1973-75 and 1981-82. In the aftermath of those severe recessions, the economy rapidly recovered and unemployment quickly declined. ; Will unemployment behave similarly following this recession? One reason why unemployment may not fall as quickly this time is that the labor market has changed substantively since the early 1980s. In the two recoveries since then, not only did unemployment continue to climb, but it remained persistently high in what have been termed \\"jobless recoveries.\\" To the extent that labor market changes were responsible for these jobless recoveries, unemployment following the current recession may also be slow to recover. ; A second reason unemployment may not fall quickly this time is that the recession has been coupled with a systemic banking crisis. While the United States has not had many instances of similar crises in the past, evidence from the experiences of other countries may shed light on how future unemployment in the United States is likely to behave. In general, the international data reveal large and persistent increases in unemployment in the aftermath of such events. ; Knotek and Terry examine these factors and quantify their potential implications for the future U.S. unemployment rate. Their analysis suggests that recent trends in labor markets, combined with the presence of a banking crisis in the current recession, raise the likelihood that unemployment will recover much more slowly from this recession than past episodes of severe recession may suggest. Moreover, such a slow recovery has the potential to raise important questions for policymakers, including the level of unemployment consistent with their goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 5-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2009:i:qiii:p:5-33:n:v.94no.3
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    1. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    2. Murat Tasci & Randal Verbrugge, 2014. "How Much Slack Is in the Labor Market? That Depends on What You Mean by Slack," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    3. Elisa Gamberoni & Erik Von Uexkull & Sebastian Weber, 2010. "The Roles of Openness and Labor Market Institutions for Employment Dynamics during Economic Crises," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10155, The World Bank.
    4. Kevin x.d. Huang & Jie Chen & Zhe Li & Jianfei Sun, 2014. "Financial Conditions and Slow Recoveries," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 14-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    5. Guillermo Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli & Pablo Ottonello, 2014. "Jobless Recoveries during Financial Crises: Is Inflation the Way Out?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.),Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 11, pages 331-381, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli & Pablo Ottonello, 2012. "Labor Market, Financial Crises and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries," NBER Working Papers 18480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Neslihan Kahyalar & Bazoumana Ouattara & Sami Fethi, 2020. "The Impact of Financial Crises on the Informal Economy: The Turkish Case," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 6(2), pages 145-172, April.
    8. Siddharth Sharma & Hernan Winkler, 2018. "The labour market effects of financial crises : The role of temporary contracts in Central and Western Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(1), pages 35-60, January.
    9. Jason Henderson, 2010. "Will the rural economy rebound in 2010?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 95(Q I), pages 95-119.
    10. Ismihan, Mustafa, 2010. "A New Framework for Output-Unemployment Relationship: Okun’s Law Revisited," MPRA Paper 28135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Dimitar Nikoloski & Ljupcho Pechijareski & Goran Pechijareski, 2012. "The role of the alternative labour market adjustment mechanisms in Macedonia during the economic crisis," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 101, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Brian C. Briggeman & Jason Henderson, 2009. "The slow road back for the U.S. livestock industry," Main Street Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue 4.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ottonello, Pablo, 2012. "The Labor Market Consequences of Financial Crises With or Without Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. repec:ilo:ilowps:461897 is not listed on IDEAS

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