A closer look at jobless recoveries
Most analysts believe the U.S. economy is now recovering from the recession. Yet businesses continue to lay off workers, prompting The New York Times to dub this "the worst hiring slump in 20 years." Market analysts and economists have a different name for what is happening. They call it a “jobless recovery.”> The only other jobless recovery in postwar U.S. history occurred following the 1990-91 recession. In the early years of that recovery, forecasting models based on data from past business cycles predicted that the observed pickup in output would be accompanied by employment growth. Those forecasts were consistently wrong and left policymakers puzzled by businesses’ continued trimming of payrolls.> Today, policymakers are trying to understand the unexpected joblessness of the past two recoveries. Will employment be stagnant in future recoveries? This possibility makes understanding the behavior of employment in recoveries, especially jobless recoveries, a priority.> Schreft and Singh take a closer look at jobless recoveries and find that they have many common features that distinguish them from the typical recovery. Understanding job growth, an important variable for evaluating economic activity, may enable policymakers to more accurately forecast the pace and strength of recoveries and to develop more effective policy responses to weak employment growth.
Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: One Memorial Drive, Kansas City, MO 64198|
Phone: (816) 881-2254
Web page: http://www.kansascityfed.org
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, Enero.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2003:i:qii:p:45-73:n:v.88no.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LDayrit)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.