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Business Cycles in India

Author

Listed:
  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Director of Research, Economic Cycle Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper describes business and growth rate cycles with special reference to the Indian economy. It uses the classical NBER approach to determine the timing of recessions and expansions in the Indian economy, as well as the chronology of growth rate cycles, viz., the timing of speedups and slowdowns in economic growth. The reference chronology for business as well as growth rate cycles is determined on the basis of the consensus of key coincident indicators of the Indian economy, along with a composite coincident index comprised of those indicators, which tracks fluctuations in current economic activity. Finally, it describes the performance of the leading index – a composite index of leading economic indicators, designed to anticipate business cycle and growth rate cycle upturns and downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2006. "Business Cycles in India," Working papers 146, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:146
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2012. "Business And Growth Rate Cycles In India," Working papers 210, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Shruthi Jayaram, 2009. "Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India," Working Papers id:2119, eSocialSciences.
    2. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
    3. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Miroslav Klúcik & Jana Juriová, 2010. "Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicator," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 17-36, January.
    5. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; growth rate cycles; coincident index; leading index; Indian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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