IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cde/cdewps/146.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Cycles in India

Author

Listed:
  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Director of Research, Economic Cycle Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper describes business and growth rate cycles with special reference to the Indian economy. It uses the classical NBER approach to determine the timing of recessions and expansions in the Indian economy, as well as the chronology of growth rate cycles, viz., the timing of speedups and slowdowns in economic growth. The reference chronology for business as well as growth rate cycles is determined on the basis of the consensus of key coincident indicators of the Indian economy, along with a composite coincident index comprised of those indicators, which tracks fluctuations in current economic activity. Finally, it describes the performance of the leading index – a composite index of leading economic indicators, designed to anticipate business cycle and growth rate cycle upturns and downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2006. "Business Cycles in India," Working papers 146, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cdedse.org/pdf/work146.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2012. "Business And Growth Rate Cycles In India," Working papers 210, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shruthi Jayaram & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2009. "Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India," Trade Working Papers 22972, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
    3. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Miroslav Klúcik & Jana Juriová, 2010. "Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicator," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 17-36, January.
    5. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2019. "Business Cycle Measurement in India," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 121-152, Springer.
    2. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.
    3. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 1(3), pages 249-265, July.
    4. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2011. "Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach," Working Papers id:4391, eSocialSciences.
    5. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
    6. Mohanty, Jaya & Singh, Bhupal & Jain, Rajeev, 2003. "Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India," MPRA Paper 12149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for India's Exports," Occasional papers 1, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    8. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    9. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles-- Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors," Working papers 156, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Ritabrata Bose & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-033, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    11. Sumanpreet Kaur, 2019. "An Attempt to Predict Recession for the Indian Economy Using Leading Indicators," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 171-190, September.
    12. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for the Indian Economy," Working papers 90, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    13. Rajendra N. Paramanik & Bandi Kamaiah, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis Of Indian Business Cycle Dynamics," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(213), pages 7-26, April - J.
    14. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2012. "Business And Growth Rate Cycles In India," Working papers 210, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    15. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 2003/170, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Martin Schneider & Martin Spitzer, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian GDP using the generalized dynamic factor model," Working Papers 89, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    17. Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2021. "Using Credit Variables to Date Business Cycle and to Estimate the Probabilities of Recession in Real Time," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 76-96, September.
    18. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. DAVID E. ALLEN & MICHAEL McALEER & ROBERT J. POWELL & ABHAY K. SINGH, 2018. "Non-Parametric Multiple Change Point Analysis Of The Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-23, June.
    20. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2021. "The Transformation Of Economic Analysis At The Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System During The 1960s," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 323-349, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; growth rate cycles; coincident index; leading index; Indian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sanjeev Sharma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdudein.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.