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Business Cycles in India

  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Director of Research, Economic Cycle Research Institute)

This paper describes business and growth rate cycles with special reference to the Indian economy. It uses the classical NBER approach to determine the timing of recessions and expansions in the Indian economy, as well as the chronology of growth rate cycles, viz., the timing of speedups and slowdowns in economic growth. The reference chronology for business as well as growth rate cycles is determined on the basis of the consensus of key coincident indicators of the Indian economy, along with a composite coincident index comprised of those indicators, which tracks fluctuations in current economic activity. Finally, it describes the performance of the leading index – a composite index of leading economic indicators, designed to anticipate business cycle and growth rate cycle upturns and downturns.

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Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Working papers with number 146.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:146
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  1. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, December.
  2. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2012. "Business And Growth Rate Cycles In India," Working papers 210, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  3. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
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