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Predicting Indian Business Cycles


  • Pami Dua

    (Pami Dua is at the Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India, and Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York; e-mail:

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Anirvan Banerji is at Economic Cycle Research Institute, 420 Lexington Avenue, Suite 1626, New York, NY 10170, US; e-mail:


This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the Delhi School of Economics-Economic Cycle Research Institute (DSE-ECRI) Indian Leading Index for exports for predicting cyclical swings in Indian exports growth. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of India's 17 major trading partners. Leading indices of India's major trading partners were developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the real-time performance of the leading index of Indian exports has been creditable in the last seven years since its construction in 2001. In conjunction with the DSE-ECRI Indian Leading Index, designed to monitor the domestic economy, the exports leading index forms a sound foundation for a pioneering effort to monitor Indian economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 1(3), pages 249-265, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:1:y:2007:i:3:p:249-265

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    JEL Classification: E32; JEL Classification: E37; JEL Classification: F17; Indian Leading Index; Exports; Evaluation of Leading Indicator; Lead Profile;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation


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