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Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach

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  • Pami Dua

    ()

  • Anirvan Banerji

    ()

Abstract

This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate cycles is discussed. Since economies undergo structural changes over the course of a business cycle, and rapid structural changes are characteristic of developing economies in particular, practical methods for the analysis and prediction of business cycles need to be robust to such shifts. The recent Great Recession also underscores why “this time, it’s different†should not be considered a valid excuse for forecasting failure. [Working Paper No. 202]. URL:[http://www.cdedse.org/].

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2011. "Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach," Working Papers id:4391, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:4391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Front matter to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67"," NBER Chapters,in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, pages -13--4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Arthur F. Burns, 1952. "Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Economic Scientist," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn52-1, July.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    5. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Appendices and Indexes to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67"," NBER Chapters,in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, pages 55-111 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Banerji, Anirvan & Hiris, Lorene, 2001. "A framework for measuring international business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 333-348.
    7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
    8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Summary to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67"," NBER Chapters,in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, pages 53-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
    11. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1969. "Foreword to "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67"," NBER Chapters,in: Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67, pages -3 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Perman, Roger & Scouller, John, 1999. "Business Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775249.
    13. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
    14. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1950. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor50-1, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silva, Aldy Fernandes da & Weffort, Elionor Farah Jreige & Flores, Eduardo da Silva & Silva, Glauco Peres da, 2014. "Gerenciamento de resultados e crises econômicas no mercado de capitais brasileiro," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 54(3), May.
    2. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Anna Pestova, 2015. "Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 94/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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