IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy


  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York)


An index of coincident economic indicators is constructed for the Indian economy since the mid 1950s. This tracks fluctuations in aggregate economic activity and determines the phase of the business cycle the economy is in at a given point in time. It thus helps to ascertain the timing of recessions and expansions in economic activity as well as speedups and slowdowns in economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:73

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hanushek, Eric A, 1995. "Interpreting Recent Research on Schooling in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 227-246, August.
    2. Geeta Gandhi Kingdon & Jeemol Unni, 2001. "Education and Women's Labour Market Outcomes in India," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 173-195.
    3. Boissiere, M & Knight, J B & Sabot, R H, 1985. "Earnings, Schooling, Ability, and Cognitive Skills," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1016-1030, December.
    4. Kingdom, G.G. & Unni, J., 1998. "Education and Women's Labour Market Outcomes in India: An Analysis Using NSS Household Data," Economics Series Working Papers 99201, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Hanushek, Eric A, 1986. "The Economics of Schooling: Production and Efficiency in Public Schools," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 1141-1177, September.
    6. Dreze, Jean & Lanjouw, Peter & Sharma, Naresh, 1997. "Credit in rural India: a case study," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6692, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 1998. "School quality and educational outcomes in South Africa," Working Papers 993, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing..
    8. Duraisamy, P., 1992. "Gender, Intrafamily Allocation of Resources and Child Schooling in South India," Papers 667, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    9. Paul Glewwe & Hanan Jacoby, 1994. "Student Achievement and Schooling Choice in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(3), pages 843-864.
    10. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    11. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy, 1999. "Using Maimonides' Rule to Estimate the Effect of Class Size on Scholastic Achievement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 533-575.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Dating the Indian business cycle
      by Ajay Shah in Ajay Shah's blog on 2016-09-07 15:06:00


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua, 2010. "Synchronisation of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, May.
    2. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2006. "Business Cycles in India," Working papers 146, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles-- Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors," Working papers 156, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Kathleen Dorsainvil, 2006. "Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 125-145, January-J.
    5. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for the Indian Economy," Working papers 90, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. Mohanty, Jaya & Singh, Bhupal & Jain, Rajeev, 2003. "Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India," MPRA Paper 12149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2011. "Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach," Working Papers id:4391, eSocialSciences.
    9. Mammadov, Fuad & Shaig Adigozalov, Shaiq, 2014. "Indicator Based Forecasting of Business Cycles in Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 64367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2012. "Business And Growth Rate Cycles In India," Working papers 210, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for India's Exports," Occasional papers 1, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    12. repec:beo:journl:v:62:y:2017:i:213:p:7-26 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Forecasting; Business Cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sanjeev Sharma). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.