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Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy

  • Kathleen Dorsainvil


    (Winston-Salem State University)

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    This paper develops a methodology to ascertain the determinants of growth in the Haitian economy. The methodology uses co-integration to identify those variables that can help explain economic activity, measured through GDP. This idea, pioneered by Hamilton and Perez- Quiros (1996), has the advantage of allowing for a smaller data set than the ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The results of this paper show that external and financial variables can provide Haitian policymakers with a good signaling device of the true performance of the economy. These variables are available before GDP, allowing policymakers to take preemptive measures to improve performance of the economy.

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    Article provided by in its journal Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA.

    Volume (Year): XV (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January-June)
    Pages: 125-145

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    Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:15:y:2006:i:1:p:125-145
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    1. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, July.
    5. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
    6. Alejandro Simone, 2001. "In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina," IMF Working Papers 01/30, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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