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Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India

Author

Listed:
  • Mohanty, Jaya
  • Singh, Bhupal
  • Jain, Rajeev

Abstract

The identification of business cycles in India and construction of a composite leading indicator for forecasting the cyclical turning points have been the focus of this study. The cyclical analysis of monthly index of industrial production (IIP) in India applying the Bry-Boschan procedure indicates that there have been 13 growth cycles in the Indian economy with varying durations during 1970-71 to 2001-02. While the average duration of expansion has been 12 months, the recessions are characterised by relatively longer duration of 16 months. For the purpose of forecasting turning points of business cycle, a composite leading index (CLI) is constructed comprising non-oil imports, exports, US GDP, deposits of commercial banks, non-food credit of commercial banks, currency demand, money supply growth, prices of industrial raw materials, prices of manufactured products, treasury bill yield, stock prices, freight loading of the railways and cargo handled at the major ports. The CLI has been able to forecast the turning points of the reference series with a lead period of about 6 months.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohanty, Jaya & Singh, Bhupal & Jain, Rajeev, 2003. "Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India," MPRA Paper 12149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12149
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12149/1/MPRA_paper_12149.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    3. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krittika Banerjee, 2012. "Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour," Working Papers id:4699, eSocialSciences.
    2. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
    4. Radoslaw Kurach, 2012. "Stocks, Commodities And Business Cycle Fluctuations – Seeking The Diversification Benefits," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 101-116, December.
    5. Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
    6. Singh, Bhupal, 2007. "Corporate choice for overseas borrowings: The Indian evidence," MPRA Paper 13220, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; leading indicators;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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