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Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour

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  • Krittika Banerjee

Abstract

This paper studies the leadlag pattern in the interaction between credit and growth cycles of India at three levels i.e. at the aggregate level for annual GDP growth, at the sectoral level across agriculture, industry and services, and also across major industries. The study focuses on three distinct periods, viz., 1950-51 to 1979-80, 1980-81 to 1990-91 and the post-1991 period and finds that there has been a significant transformation in the direction of credit-output causality during the period of analysis - from output being predominantly driven by credit in the pre-1980s period to nearly no relationship between the two during the 1980s and further to credit being primarily driven by output in the post-reforms period. [RBI W P S (DEPR) : 22 / 2011]. URL:[http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/22WPN020112.pdf].

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  • Krittika Banerjee, 2012. "Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour," Working Papers id:4699, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:4699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Ronny Nilsson, 2006. "Composite Leading Indicators and Growth Cycles in Major OECD Non-Member Economies and recently new OECD Members Countries," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/5, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Satyananda Sahoo, 2014. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Bank-Based versus Market-Based Systems," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 93-114, May.
    2. Harendra Behera & Saurabh Sharma, 2022. "Characterizing India’s Financial Cycle," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 152-183, June.
    3. Hacievliyagil Nuri & Eksi Ibrahim Halil, 2019. "A Micro Based Study on Bank Credit and Economic Growth: Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, June.
    4. Sovik Mukherjee, 2019. "Non-performing assets of banks and economicgrowth vinculum in the era of globalization: The Indian experience," International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy (2687-2293), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 1(3), pages 19-31, July.
    5. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.

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