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Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour

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  • Krittika Banerjee

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Abstract

This paper studies the leadlag pattern in the interaction between credit and growth cycles of India at three levels i.e. at the aggregate level for annual GDP growth, at the sectoral level across agriculture, industry and services, and also across major industries. The study focuses on three distinct periods, viz., 1950-51 to 1979-80, 1980-81 to 1990-91 and the post-1991 period and finds that there has been a significant transformation in the direction of credit-output causality during the period of analysis - from output being predominantly driven by credit in the pre-1980s period to nearly no relationship between the two during the 1980s and further to credit being primarily driven by output in the post-reforms period. [RBI W P S (DEPR) : 22 / 2011]. URL:[http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/22WPN020112.pdf].

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  • Krittika Banerjee, 2012. "Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour," Working Papers id:4699, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:4699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Mohanty, Jaya & Singh, Bhupal & Jain, Rajeev, 2003. "Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India," MPRA Paper 12149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    4. Ronny Nilsson, 2006. "Composite Leading Indicators and Growth Cycles in Major OECD Non-Member Economies and recently new OECD Members Countries," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/5, OECD Publishing.
    5. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    6. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    7. Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1982. "The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting--Retrospect and Prospect," NBER Working Papers 0941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Christopher Kent & Patrick D'Arcy, 2001. "Cyclical prudence - credit cycles in Australia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 58-90 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
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