IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour

  • Krittika Banerjee


Registered author(s):

    This paper studies the leadlag pattern in the interaction between credit and growth cycles of India at three levels i.e. at the aggregate level for annual GDP growth, at the sectoral level across agriculture, industry and services, and also across major industries. The study focuses on three distinct periods, viz., 1950-51 to 1979-80, 1980-81 to 1990-91 and the post-1991 period and finds that there has been a significant transformation in the direction of credit-output causality during the period of analysis - from output being predominantly driven by credit in the pre-1980s period to nearly no relationship between the two during the 1980s and further to credit being primarily driven by output in the post-reforms period. [RBI W P S (DEPR) : 22 / 2011]. URL:[].

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:4699.

    in new window

    Date of creation: Jan 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:4699
    Note: Institutional Papers
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christopher Kent & Patrick D'Arcy, 2001. "Cyclical prudence - credit cycles in Australia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 58-90 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1982. "The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting--Retrospect and Prospect," NBER Working Papers 0941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    6. Ronny Nilsson, 2006. "Composite Leading Indicators and Growth Cycles in Major OECD Non-Member Economies and recently new OECD Members Countries," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/5, OECD Publishing.
    7. Mohanty, Jaya & Singh, Bhupal & Jain, Rajeev, 2003. "Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India," MPRA Paper 12149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research.
    9. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:4699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Padma Prakash)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.