IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Boundedly rational banks’ contribution to the credit cycle

  • Rötheli, Tobias F.
Registered author(s):

    We investigate how banks’ boundedly rational learning influences their views about default risks over the business cycle. Our analysis details the direction and the magnitude of these effects assuming that banks update probability in a Bayesian way. With a limited experience span lenders are liable to overestimate (underestimate) losses from defaulting loans early (late) in the boom. Depending on their experience span, banks turn over-optimistic and underprice default risk 3–5 years into the boom. During recessions an overpricing of risk begins just quarters into the recession. Our simulations are calibrated with U.S. data and provide evidence for the view that banks contribute to excessive lending during the upswing and to credit crunches in recessions.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1053535712000911
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics).

    Volume (Year): 41 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 730-737

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:41:y:2012:i:5:p:730-737
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620175

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Dirk J. Bezemer, 2011. "The Credit Crisis and Recession as a Paradigm Test," Journal of Economic Issues, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Patrick Asea & S. Brook Blomberg, 1997. "Lending Cycles," UCLA Economics Working Papers 764, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Wennemo, Tom, 2010. "Endogenous housing market cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 557-567, March.
    4. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2003. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde & David Leiser & Rinat Benita, 2010. "Human Foibles or Systemic Failure -- Lay Perceptions of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Post-Print ijn_00445611, HAL.
    6. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Inefficient Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 13639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John A. Weinberg, 1995. "Cycles in lending standards?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 1-18.
    8. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
    9. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    11. Viral V. Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2008. "Information Contagion and Bank Herding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 215-231, 02.
    12. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research.
    13. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2009. "Unstable Banking," NBER Working Papers 14943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Albert M. Wojnilower, 1980. "The Central Role of Credit Crunches in Recent Financial History," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 277-340.
    15. Carlos González-Aguado & Max Bruche, 2006. "Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities and the Credit Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp572, Financial Markets Group.
    16. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
    17. Larry D. Wall & Timothy W. Koch, 2000. "Bank loan-loss accounting: a review of theoretical and empirical evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-20.
    18. Gary Gorton & Ping He, 2005. "Bank Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 11363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Leiser, David & Bourgeois-Gironde, Sacha & Benita, Rinat, 2010. "Human foibles or systemic failure--Lay perceptions of the 2008-2009 financial crisis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 132-141, April.
    20. Lewis, Alan, 2010. "The credit crunch: Ideological, psychological and epistemological perspectives," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 127-131, April.
    21. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    22. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2001. "Competition, herd behavior, and credit cycles: evidence from major Swiss Banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 585-592.
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy; What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 11/238, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:41:y:2012:i:5:p:730-737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.