Boundedly rational banks’ contribution to the credit cycle
We investigate how banks’ boundedly rational learning influences their views about default risks over the business cycle. Our analysis details the direction and the magnitude of these effects assuming that banks update probability in a Bayesian way. With a limited experience span lenders are liable to overestimate (underestimate) losses from defaulting loans early (late) in the boom. Depending on their experience span, banks turn over-optimistic and underprice default risk 3–5 years into the boom. During recessions an overpricing of risk begins just quarters into the recession. Our simulations are calibrated with U.S. data and provide evidence for the view that banks contribute to excessive lending during the upswing and to credit crunches in recessions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 41 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620175|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Patrick Asea & S. Brook Blomberg, 1997.
UCLA Economics Working Papers
764, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2010.
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 306-318, September.
- Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Wennemo, Tom, 2010. "Endogenous housing market cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 557-567, March.
- Dirk J. Bezemer, 2011. "The Credit Crisis and Recession as a Paradigm Test," Journal of Economic Issues, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 1-18, March.
- International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy; What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 11/238, International Monetary Fund.
- Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009.
"The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
- Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008.
"What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
- Marco Terrones & Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
- John A. Weinberg, 1995. "Cycles in lending standards?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 1-18.
- Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde & David Leiser & Rinat Benita, 2010. "Human Foibles or Systemic Failure -- Lay Perceptions of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Post-Print ijn_00445611, HAL.
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004.
"The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey,"
SIFR Research Report Series
27, Institute for Financial Research.
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
- Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2011.
"Macroprudential policy - a literature review,"
BIS Working Papers
337, Bank for International Settlements.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated".
1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004.
"The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior,"
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
- Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2003. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2003. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behaviour," BIS Working Papers 125, Bank for International Settlements.
- Guido Lorenzoni, 2008.
"Inefficient Credit Booms,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
- G. B. Gorton & Ping He, 2008.
"Bank Credit Cycles,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1181-1214.
- N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
- Lewis, Alan, 2010. "The credit crunch: Ideological, psychological and epistemological perspectives," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 127-131, April.
- Carlos González-Aguado & Max Bruche, 2006.
"Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities and the Credit Cycle,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp572, Financial Markets Group.
- Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
- Max Bruche & Carlos Gonzalez-Aguado, 2006. "Recovery rates, default probabilities and the credit cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24524, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Larry D. Wall & Timothy W. Koch, 2000. "Bank loan-loss accounting: a review of theoretical and empirical evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-20.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
- Albert M. Wojnilower, 1980. "The Central Role of Credit Crunches in Recent Financial History," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 277-340.
- Rotheli, Tobias F., 2001. "Competition, herd behavior, and credit cycles: evidence from major Swiss Banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 585-592.
- Leiser, David & Bourgeois-Gironde, Sacha & Benita, Rinat, 2010. "Human foibles or systemic failure--Lay perceptions of the 2008-2009 financial crisis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 132-141, April.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
- Viral V. Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2008. "Information Contagion and Bank Herding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 215-231, 02.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:41:y:2012:i:5:p:730-737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.