Endogenous housing market cycles
Housing markets tend to display positive serial correlation as well as considerable volatility over time. We present a heterogeneous agent model illustrating the connection between adaptive expectations and housing market fluctuations. A dwelling serves as a shelter, as a vehicle for investment and as mortgage collateral. Interesting dynamics arise as the valuation of these three properties changes over time through the interaction of buyers, sellers and mortgagees. In the absence of credit constraints imposed by mortgagees, house prices oscillate mildly around the equilibrium price. However, credit constraints imposed by mortgagees can affect market dynamics quite dramatically with periods of mild oscillations interrupted by violent collapses. This chaotic behavior arises even though buyers, sellers and mortgagees agree on market forecasts.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2006.
"Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963-2003,"
2006 Meeting Papers
585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998.
"Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Kenneth W. Clements & Yanrui Wu & Jing Zhang, 2004.
"Comparing International Consumption Patterns,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
04-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Oikarinen, Elias, 2009.
"Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
- Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case," Discussion Papers 29, Aboa Centre for Economics.
- Heuson, Andrea & Passmore, Wayne & Sparks, Roger, 2001. "Credit Scoring and Mortgage Securitization: Implications for Mortgage Rates and Credit Availability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 337-63, November.
- Silos, Pedro, 2007.
"Housing, portfolio choice and the macroeconomy,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2774-2801, August.
- Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005.
"Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Michele Boldrin & Michael Woodford, 1988.
"Equilibruim Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
530, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
- Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004.
"The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
- Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Satchell, Steve & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "On the optimality of adaptive expectations: Muth revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 407-416, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2005.
"The life-cycle effects of house price changes,"
05-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2009. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1624-1635, September.
- John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011.
"Forced Sales and House Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-31, August.
- John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2009. "Forced Sales and House Prices," NBER Working Papers 14866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," Scholarly Articles 9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John P. Harding & John R. Knight & C.F. Sirmans, 2003. "Estimating Bargaining Effects in Hedonic Models: Evidence from the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 601-622, December.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, June.
- Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with identical fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 420-443, November.
- Niinimäki, J.-P., 2009. "Does collateral fuel moral hazard in banking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 514-521, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:557-567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.