IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tkk/dpaper/dp29.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case

Author

Listed:
  • Elias Oikarinen

    (Department of Economics, Turku School of Economics)

Abstract

Housing prices and household borrowing are expected to be tightly connected to each other. Better availability of credit eases liquidity constraints of households, which is likely to lead to higher demand for housing. On the other hand, housing prices may significantly influence household borrowing through various wealth effects. Employing time series econometrics this study shows that since the financial liberalization in the late 1980s there has been a significant two-way interaction between housing prices and housing loan stock in Finland. Before the financial deregulation the interaction was substantially weaker. Furthermore, housing appreciation has a notable positive impact on the amount of consumption loans withdrawn by households. It appears that there is no similar relationship between stock price movements and household borrowing. Understanding the two-way interaction between housing prices and credit is of importance, since the interdependence is likely to augment boom-bust cycles in the economy and increase the fragility of the financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case," Discussion Papers 29, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ace-economics.fi/kuvat/dp%20029.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
    3. Lepetit, Laetitia & Nys, Emmanuelle & Rous, Philippe & Tarazi, Amine, 2008. "The expansion of services in European banking: Implications for loan pricing and interest margins," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2325-2335, November.
    4. Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji & Mr. Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/020, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    7. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    8. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    9. Barakova, Irina & Bostic, Raphael W. & Calem, Paul S. & Wachter, Susan M., 2003. "Does credit quality matter for homeownership?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 318-336, December.
    10. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Labor income uncertainty, skewness and homeownership: A panel data study for Germany and Spain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 156-176, July.
    11. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    12. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    13. Drake, Leigh & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Simper, Richard, 2006. "The impact of macroeconomic and regulatory factors on bank efficiency: A non-parametric analysis of Hong Kong's banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1443-1466, May.
    14. Honohan, Patrick, 2008. "Cross-country variation in household access to financial services," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2493-2500, November.
    15. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    16. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Martin S. Feldstein, 2007. "Housing, Credit Markets and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. "Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    19. Liang, Qi & Cao, Hua, 2007. "Property prices and bank lending in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 63-75, February.
    20. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
    21. Johansen, Søren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 740-778, October.
    22. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "On the negative relationship between labor income uncertainty and homeownership: Risk-aversion vs. credit constraints," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 109-126, June.
    23. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    24. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2008. "The cyclical behaviour of European bank capital buffers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1440-1451, August.
    25. Hort, Katinka, 1998. "The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1968-1994," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 93-120, June.
    26. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    27. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    28. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
    29. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, Decembrie.
    30. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    31. Jin, Yi & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2004. "Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 268-286, December.
    32. Riddel, Mary, 2004. "Housing-market disequilibrium: an examination of housing-market price and stock dynamics 1967-1998," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 120-135, June.
    33. Yamashita, Takashi, 2007. "House price appreciation, liquidity constraints, and second mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 424-440, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oikarinen, Elias, 2008. "Interaction between Housing Prices and Household Borrowing in Finland," Discussion Papers 1145, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    3. Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-54.
    4. Elias Oikarinen, 2010. "Foreign Ownership of Stocks and Long-run Interdependence Between National Housing and Stock Markets—Evidence from Finnish Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 486-509, November.
    5. Fabian Lindner, 2014. "The Interaction of Mortgage Credit and Housing Prices in the US," IMK Working Paper 133-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. repec:imk:wpaper:133-2013 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    8. Luc Laeven & Alexander Popov, 2017. "Waking Up from the American Dream: On the Experience of Young Americans during the Housing Boom of the 2000s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 861-895, August.
    9. Oikarinen, Elias & Peltola, Risto & Valtonen, Eero, 2015. "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: The case of a small sparsely populated country," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 18-30.
    10. Elias OIKARINEN & Martin HOESLI & Camilo SERRANO, 2009. "Linkages Between Direct and Securitized Real Estate," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-26, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Dynamic linkages between housing and lot prices: Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Discussion Papers 53, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    12. David H. Bernstein & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Asymptotic Theory for Cointegration Analysis When the Cointegration Rank Is Deficient," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, January.
    13. Hoesli, Martin & Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1823-1850.
    14. Oikarinen, Elias, 2005. "Is Housing Overvalued in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area?," Discussion Papers 992, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    15. Niels Møller & Paul Sharp, 2014. "Malthus in cointegration space: evidence of a post-Malthusian pre-industrial England," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 105-140, March.
    16. Elias Oikarinen & Martin Hoesli & Camilo Serrano, 2013. "Do Public Real Estate Returns Really Lead Private Returns?," ERES eres2013_145, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    17. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    18. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    19. Christian Hott, 2009. "Banks and Real Estate Prices," Working Papers 2009-08, Swiss National Bank.
    20. Jim Clayton & Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2010. "Price-volume Correlation in the Housing Market: Causality and Co-movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 14-40, January.
    21. Antonia Díaz & Belén Jerez, 2013. "House Prices, Sales, And Time On The Market: A Search‐Theoretic Framework," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(3), pages 837-872, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    lending; borrowing; housing; dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Susmita Baulia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tukkkfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.