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Banks and Real Estate Prices

  • Christian Hott

The willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of their borrowers. Beside other factors, the creditworthiness of borrowers depends on the development of real estate prices. Real estate prices, in turn, depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by the willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases. In this paper I develop a theoretical model which describes and explains this circular relationship. Using this model, I show how different kinds of expectation formations can lead to fluctuations of real estate prices. Furthermore, I show that banks make above average profits in the upswing phase of the real estate cycle but suffer high losses when the market turns.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2009-08.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2009-08
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  1. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: A Structural Econometric Analysis," 2004 Meeting Papers 207b, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
  4. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  6. Christian Hott, 2007. "Explaining house price fluctuations," Proceedings 1055, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
  9. Holly, Sean & Jones, Natasha, 1997. "House prices since the 1940s: Cointegration, demography and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 549-565, October.
  10. Nada Mora, 2008. "The Effect of Bank Credit on Asset Prices: Evidence from the Japanese Real Estate Boom during the 1980s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 57-87, 02.
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