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Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US

Listed author(s):
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in 't Veld

This paper presents a DSGE model with residential investment and credit-constrained households estimated with US data over the period 1980Q1-2008Q4. In order to better understand speculative movements of house prices, we model land as an exhaustible resource, implying that house prices have asset market characteristics.We conduct an event study for the US over the period 1999Q1-2008Q4 which has been characterised by a housing boom and bust and examine which shocks have contributed to the evolution of GDP and its components over this period. We devote special attention to the contribution of non-fundamental shocks to asset prices over this episode.

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File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp397_en.pdf
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Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 with number 397.

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Length: 79 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0397
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  1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The Euro Area and US after 2001," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2476-2506, August.
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
  4. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
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  7. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
  8. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2001. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 663-680, June.
  9. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
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  11. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  12. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
  13. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
  15. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
  16. Jan Hatzius, 2008. "Beyond Leveraged Losses: The Balance Sheet Effects of the Home Price Downturn," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 195-227.
  17. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 335, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  18. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
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