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The recent boom-bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles


  • In't Veld, Jan
  • Raciborski, Rafal
  • Ratto, Marco
  • Roeger, Werner


We use an estimated open economy DSGE model with financial frictions for the US and the rest of the world to evaluate various competing explanations about the recent boom-bust cycle. We find that the savings glut hypothesis is insufficient for explaining all aspects of the boom in the US. Relatively strong TFP growth and expansionary monetary policy are also not able to explain fully the volatility of corporate and in particular residential investment. We identify bubbles in the stock and housing market as crucial. Concerning the downturn in 2008/2009, the fall in house prices and residential investment only plays a minor role. Mortgage defaults have more explanatory power, especially in a specification of the model with a segregated equity market. Finally, the bursting of the stock market bubble was at least as important in this recession as in 2001. Because of various negative shocks hitting the economy at the same time in 2008/2009 and continued positive technology growth, not only the real interest rate declined but inflation fell rapidly and left insufficient room for monetary policy to play a similar stabilising role as in previous recessions.

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  • In't Veld, Jan & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2011. "The recent boom-bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 386-406, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:55:y:2011:i:3:p:386-406

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alice, Albonico & Ludovic, Calès & Roberta, Cardani & Olga, Croitorov & Filippo, Ferroni & Massimo, Giovannini & Stefan, Hohberger & Beatrice, Pataracchia & Filippo, Pericoli & Rafal, Raciborski & Mar, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    3. Mayer, Eric & Maas, Daniel & Rüth, Sebastian, 2016. "Current Account Dynamics and the Housing Cycle in Spain," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145824, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. repec:spr:minecn:v:30:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-017-0114-y is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Szabolcs Deák & Lionel Fontagné & Marco Maffezzoli & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "The banking and distribution sectors in a small open economy DSGE Model," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/53, European University Institute.
    6. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
    7. Tuomas Malinen, 2016. "Does income inequality contribute to credit cycles?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(3), pages 309-325, September.
    8. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    9. MeiChi Huang & LinYing Yeh, 2015. "Should the Fed take extra action for the recent housing bubble? Evidence from asymmetric transitory shocks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 762-781, October.
    10. Kollmann, Robert & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in't, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy vs. Bank Rescue Measures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    12. Jan in 't Veld & Andrea Pagano & Rafal Raciborski & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2012. "Imbalances and rebalancing scenarios in an estimated structural model for Spain," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 458, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & in′t Veld, Jan, 2013. "Fiscal policy, banks and the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 387-403.
    14. Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Bubbles over the U.S. business cycle: A macroeconometric approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 27-41.
    15. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
    16. Tabata, Katsushi & Kawaguchi, Yuichiro, 2013. "Real estate prices in Japan and Lewis turning point," MPRA Paper 49090, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Meichi Huang, 2013. "Housing bubble implications: The perspective of housing price predictability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 586-596.
    18. Karolin Kirschenmann & Tuomas Malinen & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "The risk of financial crises: Is it in real or financial factors?," Working Papers 336, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    19. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    20. Jan in 't Veld & Werner Roeger, 2012. "Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of Government Support Measures to Financial Institutions in the EU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 453, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    22. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    23. Werner Roeger & Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Jan in 't Veld, 2012. "Estimating the Effects of Standard Fiscal and Bank Rescue Measures," 2012 Meeting Papers 764, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Fritz Breuss, 2011. "Global financial crisis as a phenomenon of stock market overshooting," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 131-152, February.


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