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Imbalances and rebalancing scenarios in an estimated structural model for Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Jan in 't Veld
  • Andrea Pagano
  • Rafal Raciborski
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

This paper uses an estimated DSGE model to analyse the factors behind the build-up of imbalances in the Spanish economy. Shock decompositions suggest that external imbalances have been able to build up mainly due to the reduction in real interest rates and easier access to credit following the elimination of the exchange rate risk premium. While the reduction in external imbalances has started in the recent period, projections of the estimated model indicate that faster correction to these imbalances will require an adjustment in domestic demand and a significant improvement in the trade balance in the coming years. The correction would be eased in a more favourable and less risk-averse environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan in 't Veld & Andrea Pagano & Rafal Raciborski & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2012. "Imbalances and rebalancing scenarios in an estimated structural model for Spain," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 458, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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