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A Simple Model of the Relationship Between Productivity, Saving and the Current Account

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  • Jean-Marc Fournier

    (OECD)

  • Isabell Koske

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper uses a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explore the qualitative impact of productivity shocks on current account positions via their impact on the saving behaviour of households. The analysis shows that the direction of the impact is ambiguous from a theoretical point of view. This impact depends in particular on consumer’s willingness to shift consumption over time relative to their willingness to shift consumption between different types of goods, on whether they believe the shock to be temporary or permanent, and on the sector in which the shock occurs. Un modèle simple reliant la productivité, l'épargne et la balance courante Cet article explore l’effet qualitatif de chocs de productivité sur la balance courante, via leur impact sur le comportement d’épargne des ménages, avec un modèle d’équilibre général stochastique simple. Cette analyse montre que le sens de l’effet est théoriquement ambigu. Cet effet dépend de la propension des consommateurs à modifier le niveau de leur consommation au cours du temps comparée à leur propension à modifier leur panier de biens, de la croyance par les agents que le choc est permanent ou temporaire, ou encore du secteur dans lequel le choc se produit.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marc Fournier & Isabell Koske, 2010. "A Simple Model of the Relationship Between Productivity, Saving and the Current Account," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 816, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:816-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5km398t8tqkf-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Coricelli & Andreas Wörgötter, 2012. "Structural Change and the Current Account: The Case of Germany," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 940, OECD Publishing.
    2. Jan in 't Veld & Andrea Pagano & Rafal Raciborski & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2012. "Imbalances and rebalancing scenarios in an estimated structural model for Spain," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 458, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Roman Stöllinger, 2017. "Tradability of Output and the Current Account: An Empirical Investigation for Europe," wiiw Working Papers 134, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Clovis Kerdrain & Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner, 2010. "The Impact of Structural Policies on Saving, Investment and Current Accounts," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 815, OECD Publishing.
    5. Clovis Kerdrain & Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances: can Structural Reforms Help to Reduce Them?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(1), pages 1-44.
    6. Alexander Culiuc & Annette J Kyobe, 2017. "Structural Reforms and External Rebalancing," IMF Working Papers 17/182, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jan in ’t Veld & Andrea Pagano & Rafal Raciborski & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2015. "Imbalances and Rebalancing in an Estimated Structural Model for Spain," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, January.
    8. Tomasz Wieladek & Sergi Lanau, 2012. "Financial Regulation and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 12/98, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ravasan, Farshad R & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2013. "The origins of the German current account surplus: Unbalanced productivity growth and structural change," CEPR Discussion Papers 9527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2014. "The potential growth impact of structural reforms in the EU. A benchmarking exercise," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 541, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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    Keywords

    ajustement de la balance courante; current account adjustment; productivity; productivité; saving; épargne;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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