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Lending behavior and real estate prices

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  • Hott, C.

Abstract

The willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of borrowers. Besides other factors, this creditworthiness depends on the development of real estate prices. Real estate prices, in turn, depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by the supply of mortgages. I develop a theoretical model which explains this circular relationship. I show how different kinds of expectation formations can lead to fluctuations in real estate prices. Furthermore, I show that banks make above-average profits in the upswing phase of the real estate cycle but suffer high losses when the market turns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hott, C., 2011. "Lending behavior and real estate prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2429-2442, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:9:p:2429-2442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tajik, Mohammad & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Ghalia, Thaana & Kaffash, Sepideh, 2015. "House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-135.
    2. Bond, Derek & Gallagher, Emer & Ramsey, Elaine, 2012. "A preliminary investigation of northern Ireland's housing market dynamics," MPRA Paper 39806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2012. "Subprime mortgage design," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1503-1519.
    4. Diego Escobari & Damian Damianov & Andres Bello, 2015. "A time series test to identify housing bubbles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 136-152, January.
    5. Hott, Christian, 2015. "A model of mortgage losses and its applications for macroprudential instruments," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-194.
    6. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615, arXiv.org.
    7. repec:eee:finsta:v:29:y:2017:i:c:p:92-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Svante Mandell & Han-Suck Song & Abukar Warsame & Mats Wilhelmsson, 2011. "Bank Lending and House Prices in Sweden 1992-2010," ERES eres2011_91, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Frontczak, Robert & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Modeling loss given default with stochastic collateral," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-170.
    10. repec:clh:resear:v:8:y:2015:i:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Goswami, Gautam & Tan, Sinan, 2012. "Pricing the US residential asset through the rent flow: A cross-sectional study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2742-2756.

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