IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dse/indecr/v36y2001i1p55-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Indicator Approach to Business and Growth Rate Cycles: The Case of India

Author

Listed:
  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics and Economic Cycle Research Institute)

  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Economic Cycle Research Institute)

Abstract

Over the last few decades, the Indian economy has experienced both classical business cycles and the cyclical fluctuations in its growth rate known as growth rate cycles. In the years since the liberalization of the economy began, these cycles have been driven more by endogenous factors than by exogenous shocks. From the point of view of both policy makers and business, therefore, it is important to find a way to predict Indian recessions and recoveries, along with slowdowns and speed-ups in growth. This paper adopts a classical leading indicator approach to the problem. In earlier work (Dua and Banerji, 1999), we used the classical NBER approach to determine the dates of Indian business cycles and growth rate cycles. These dates are used as the reference chronology against which to evaluate the performance of potential leading indicators for the Indian economy. The indicators selected are combined into a composite index of leading economic indicators, designed to anticipate business cycle and growth rate cycles upturns and downturns. Given the paucity of suitable data for the Indian economy, the construction of such a leading index constitutes a significant advance. It also confirms that that the durable sequences of leads and lags seen in free market economies are now also evident in the Indian case, permitting useful forecasts of cyclical turning points.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "An Indicator Approach to Business and Growth Rate Cycles: The Case of India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 55-78, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:55-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Gupta, Manash Ranjan, 1996. "Delayed formal credit, bribing and the informal credit market in agriculture: A theoretical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 433-449, December.
    2. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Ghosh Dastidar, Krishnendu, 2011. "Vertical linkage between formal and informal credit markets: corruption and credit subsidy policy," MPRA Paper 35563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hoff, Karla & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1998. "Moneylenders and bankers: price-increasing subsidies in a monopolistically competitive market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 485-518, April.
    4. Floro, Maria Sagrario & Ray, Debraj, 1997. "Vertical Links between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 34-56, February.
    5. Kaushik Basu, 2003. "Analytical Development Economics: The Less Developed Economy Revisited," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523442, January.
    6. Gangopadhyay, Shubhashis & Sengupta, Kunal, 1987. "Small Farmers, Moneylenders and Trading Activity," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 333-342, June.
    7. Gupta, Manash Ranjan & Chaudhuri, Sarbajit, 1997. "Formal Credit, Corruption and the Informal Credit Market in Agriculture: A Theoretical Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 331-343, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    2. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2016. "Seasonal adjustment of Indian macroeconomic time-series," Working Papers 16/160, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    4. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:55-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pami Dua). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deudein.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.