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A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation

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Abstract

ABSTRACT. We use a dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson [1998, 1999,2002a,b] to forecast Colombian inflation. The model includes 92 monthly series observedover the period 1999:01-2008:06. The results show that for short-run horizons, factor modelforecasts significantly outperformed the auto-regressive benchmark model in terms of theroot mean squared forecast error statistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliana Gonz�lez & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 5273, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005273
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    1. Andrés Felipe Londono & Jorge Andr�s Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Vel�squez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71.
    2. Eliana Gonz�lez, 2010. "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7013, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Eliana Gonz�lez, 2011. "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," Borradores de Economia 7996, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Sergio Iván Prada & Julio C. Alonso & Juli�n Fern�ndez, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through into consumer healthcare prices in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 38(77), pages 523-550.
    5. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2022. "A Suggestion For A Dynamic Multifactor Model (Dmfm)," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1423-1443, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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