Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to
for a different version of it.References listed on IDEAS
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001.
"The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1113-1141, December.
- Lippi, Marco & Forni, Mario, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
- West, K.D., 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Working papers 9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994.
"An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An indicator of future inflation extracted from the steepness of the interest rate yield curve along its entire length," Research Paper 9122, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted From the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," NBER Working Papers 3751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990.
"What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. "A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-1291, September.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, 2025. "BAING: RATS procedure to estimate factors in a factor model using Bai-Ng formulas," Statistical Software Components RTS00012, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983.
"Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
- Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1982. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Scholarly Articles 3230355, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Gary Chamberlain & Michael Rothschild, 1982. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 0996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006.
"Are more data always better for factor analysis?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, January.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, November.
- Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
"The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated".
"Factor forecasts for the UK,"
Working Papers
203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael & Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003.
"Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "undated". "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, 2025. "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990.
"The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
- Sharon Kozicki, 1997. "Predicting real growth and inflation with the yield spread," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q IV), pages 39-57.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
- Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
- Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-494, Sept.-Oct.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2022.
"A Suggestion For A Dynamic Multifactor Model (Dmfm),"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1423-1443, September.
- Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2020. "A Suggestion for a Dynamic Multi Factor Model (DMFM)," Working Papers 282, Bank of Greece.
- Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper series 65_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- MeiChi Huang, 2019. "A Nationwide or Localized Housing Crisis? Evidence from Structural Instability in US Housing Price and Volume Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1547-1563, April.
- Eliana González & . Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009.
"A Dynamic Factor Model for the Colombian Inflation,"
Borradores de Economia
549, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Eliana Gonz�lez & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 5273, Banco de la Republica.
- Rangan Gupta & Faaiqa Hartley, 2013.
"The Role of Asset Prices in Forecasting Inflation and Output in South Africa,"
Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 12(3), pages 239-291, December.
- Rangan Gupta & Faaiqa Hartley, 2011. "The Role of Asset Prices in Forecasting Inflation and Output in South Africa," Working Papers 201115, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014.
"Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
- Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," Working Paper 2011/04, Norges Bank.
- Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010.
"Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Working papers 232, Banque de France.
- T. Ando & R. S. Tsay, 2009.
"‘Model selection for generalized linear models with factor‐augmented predictors’,"
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 243-246, May.
- Tomohiro Ando & Ruey S. Tsay, 2009. "Model selection for generalized linear models with factor‐augmented predictors," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 207-235, May.
- Rua, António, 2017.
"A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 581-590.
- António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019.
"Dynamic Factor Models,"
Working Papers
halshs-02262202, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Models," Post-Print halshs-02491811, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02491811, HAL.
- Ard H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007.
"Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014.
"Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
- Huyn Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2011. "Forecasting Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Reduction Methods: New Empirical Evidence," Departmental Working Papers 201119, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014.
"Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressive analysis in a data rich environment: A survey," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-004, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014.
"Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 73-107.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature," Post-Print hal-01385974, HAL.
- Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jerome & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006.
"Interpolation and backdating with a large information set,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2693-2724, December.
- Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jérôme & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "Interpolation and backdating with a large information set," Working Paper Series 252, European Central Bank.
- Henry, Jerome & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Angelini, Elena, 2004. "Interpolation and Backdating with A Large Information Set," CEPR Discussion Papers 4533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2018. "Mining big data using parsimonious factor, machine learning, variable selection and shrinkage methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 339-354.
- Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Diffusion Index Models and Index Proxies: Recent Results and New Directions," Departmental Working Papers 201114, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Massacci, Daniele, 2017. "Least squares estimation of large dimensional threshold factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 101-129.
- Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
- Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2015. "The three-pass regression filter: A new approach to forecasting using many predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 294-316.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014.
"Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Jonas Nygaard Eriksen & Stig V. Møller, 2013. "Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments," CREATES Research Papers 2013-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2008. "Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models with global and group-specific factors," Working Papers w200809, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Daniel Grenouilleau, 2006. "The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model: A Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Accuracy using Bootstrapping," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 249, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:33:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tsay, Ruey S. & Ando, Tomohiro, 2012. "Bayesian panel data analysis for exploring the impact of subprime financial crisis on the US stock market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3345-3365.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:4:p:679-693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.
Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v23y2007i4p679-693.html