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Une lecture de la crise à la lumière des crises passées

Author

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  • Davide Furceri
  • Annabelle Mourougane

Abstract

Tout comme les épisodes passés comparables, la crise financière de 2008 peut être reliée à une forte croissance antérieure du crédit, alimentant une hausse marquée des prix des actifs financiers et immobiliers. Elle est néanmoins spécifique, ayant en particulier été précédée par une sous-évaluation massive du risque et une explosion des prêts à des ménages non solvables, facilitées par un excès d'épargne au niveau mondial, suscitées et entretenues par des problèmes d'imperfection de l'information et un certain nombre d'insuffisances de la réglementation. Des facteurs classiques tels que l'existence d'imperfection sur les marchés expliquent la propagation rapide de la crise à d'autres parties du système financier et à d'autres pays. La complexité des produits hypothécaires structurés peut avoir amplifié ces effets. Comme dans les épisodes précédents, les réactions à la crise ont eu lieu en deux étapes. Une approche fragmentaire a d'abord combiné réaction des autorités monétaires, provision de liquidité et actions de sauvetage ad hoc d'institutions individuelles. Ces mesures n'ayant pas restauré la confiance sur les marchés, des plans de sauvetage importants ont été mis en œuvre à l'automne 2008. Comme souvent dans le passé, les solutions proposées ont associé trois éléments principaux : garantir les passifs bancaires, recapitaliser les institutions financières et séparer les actifs toxiques des actifs sains. Les coûts budgétaires bruts associés aux crises sont généralement importants, mais doivent être évalués par rapport à ceux éventuellement élevés de l'inaction, l'effondrement des marchés et ses conséquences étant un risque à prendre en considération. L'effet des crises financières sur le niveau de la production de long terme est susceptible d'être durablement négatif, les estimations de cet effet étant comprises en général entre 1,5 à 2,4 %. Mais un effet beaucoup plus marqué est estimé pour les crises financières profondes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2010. "Une lecture de la crise à la lumière des crises passées," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 19-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2010_num_438_1_9589
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2010.9589
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2010.9589
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