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The future of public debt: prospects and implications

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Stephen Cecchetti
  • Madhusudan Mohanty
  • Fabrizio Zampolli

Abstract

Since the start of the financial crisis, industrial country public debt levels have increased dramatically. And they are set to continue rising for the foreseeable future. A number of countries face the prospect of large and rising future costs related to the ageing of their populations. In this paper, we examine what current fiscal policy and expected future age-related spending imply for the path of debt/GDP ratios over the next several decades. Our projections of public debt ratios lead us to conclude that the path pursued by fiscal authorities in a number of industrial countries is unsustainable. Drastic measures are necessary to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities of governments and reduce their adverse consequences for long-term growth and monetary stability.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 300.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:300
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Keywords: public debt; fiscal deficit; age-related spending; inflation; interest rates; default risk;

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
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  9. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
  10. repec:nsr:niesrd:333 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  12. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
  13. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
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  15. Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-33.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Verschuldung und Demographie: Wann werden Staatsanleihen toxisch?
    by admin in BATZ.ch on 2010-05-15 09:51:30
  2. Le vieillissement de la population et l'explosion future des dettes publiques
    by contact@captaineconomics.fr (Le Captain') in Captain Economics on 2012-09-18 14:14:12
  3. Dépendance et vieillissement: la dette de la France pourrait atteindre 400% du PIB !
    by trenault@economiematin.fr (Captain Economics) in Economie Matin on 2012-09-19 10:29:52
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