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Assessing the jobless recovery

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  • Daniel Aaronson
  • Ellen R. Rissman
  • Daniel G. Sullivan

Abstract

This article reviews trends in employment growth during the recent recovery, including new evidence that much of the increase in self-employment since the beginning of the recession is likely a reflection of the weak labor market conditions of the last three years. The authors also offer thoughts on the strengths and weaknesses of several explanations for the disappointing employment growth of the last few years.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Aaronson & Ellen R. Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2004:i:qii:p:2-21:n:v.28no.2
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    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2004/ep_2Qtr_2004_Part_1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen R. Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 36-39.
    5. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73.
    6. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    7. Jonathan Gruber & Alan B. Krueger, 1991. "The Incidence of Mandated Employer-Provided Insurance: Lessons from Workers' Compensation Insurance," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 111-144 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Lisa Barrow, 2004. "Is the official unemployment rate misleading? a look at labor market statistics over the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 21-35.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    2. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2014. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 669-701, July.
    3. Francis, Neville & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 02 Jan 2017.
    4. Lisa Barrow, 2004. "Is the official unemployment rate misleading? a look at labor market statistics over the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 21-35.
    5. Lee, Seung Jung & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2016. "Bank capital pressures, loan substitutability, and nonfinancial employment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 44-69.
    6. repec:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/690242 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006. "Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
    8. Thijs van Rens, 2004. "Organizational capital and employment fluctuations," Economics Working Papers 944, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Haltenhof, Samuel & Jung Lee, Seung & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2014. "The credit crunch and fall in employment during the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 31-57.
    10. DeNicco, James, 2013. "Employment-At-Will Exceptions and Jobless Recovery," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2013-1, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    11. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-154.
    12. Ellen R. Rissman, 2006. "The self-employment duration of younger men over the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 14-27.
    13. Spierdijk, Laura & van Lomwel, Gijsbert & Peppelman, Wilko, 2009. "The determinants of sick leave durations of Dutch self-employed," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1185-1196, December.
    14. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    15. Seung Jung Lee & Viktors Stebunovs, 2012. "Bank capital ratios and the structure of nonfinancial industries," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, June.
    17. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
    18. Owyang, Michael T. & Rapach, David E. & Wall, Howard J., 2009. "States and the business cycle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 181-194, March.
    19. Carlo Alcaraz & Rodrigo García Verdú, 2006. "Changes in the Composition of Employment and Productivity in the Formal Sector of the Mexican Economy," Working Papers 2006-03, Banco de México.
    20. David Berger, 2012. "Countercyclical Restructuring and Jobless Recoveries," 2012 Meeting Papers 1179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Stanislav Rabinovich & Kurt Mitman, 2012. "Unemployment Benefits Caused Jobless Recoveries!?," 2012 Meeting Papers 1112, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Azad Haider, 2010. "Can Sectoral Re-allocation Explain the Jobless Growth? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 705-718.
    23. Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-33.
    24. DeNicco, James P., 2015. "Employment-At-Will Exceptions and jobless recovery," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-257.
    25. Kurt Mitman & Stanislav Rabinovich, 2014. "Unemployment Benefit Extensions Caused Jobless Recoveries!?," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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