IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedhep/y2004iqiip21-35nv.28no.2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the official unemployment rate misleading? a look at labor market statistics over the business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa Barrow

Abstract

While maximum unemployment rates following the most recent economic recession are low by historical standards, the lack of increase in payroll employment leads many to conclude that official unemployment rates understate current labor market weakness. This article compares other labor market statistics during the current period with earlier recoveries. While the level of the current unemployment rate may not directly comparable with earlier periods, additional labor market evidence discussed here suggests that the current labor market may be stronger than in previous recovery periods of the past 30 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Barrow, 2004. "Is the official unemployment rate misleading? a look at labor market statistics over the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 28(Q II), pages 21-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2004:i:qii:p:21-35:n:v.28no.2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://web.archive.org/web/20220909041817/https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/economic-perspectives/2004/ep-2-qtr-2004-part-2-pdf.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lisa Barrow & Kristin F. Butcher, 2004. "Not working: demographic changes, policy changes, and the distribution of weeks (not) worked," Working Paper Series WP-04-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. John Haltiwanger & Marilyn E. Manser & Robert Topel, 1998. "Labor Statistics Measurement Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number halt98-1, March.
    3. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    4. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    6. Anne E. Polivka & Stephen M. Miller, 1998. "The CPS after the Redesign: Refocusing the Economic Lens," NBER Chapters, in: Labor Statistics Measurement Issues, pages 249-289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen R. Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 28(Q II), pages 2-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & John C. Robertson, 2008. "The Push-Pull Effects of the Information Technology Boom and Bust," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 22(3), pages 200-212, August.
    2. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen R. Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 28(Q II), pages 2-21.
    3. Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    2. Ann Huff Stevens, 2010. "Comment on "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States"," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 262-266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Lalé, Etienne, 2020. "The ins and outs of involuntary part-time employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Etienne Lalé, 2016. "The Rise of Part-time Employment," Sciences Po publications 2016-04, Sciences Po.
    5. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    6. Ivan O. KITOV, 2008. "The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 203-222.
    7. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    8. Yashiv, Eran, 2006. "U.S. Labor Market Dynamics Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 2455, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Davis, Steven J. & Faberman, Jason & Haltiwanger, John C., 2005. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources, Micro-Macro Links and the Recent Downturn," IZA Discussion Papers 1639, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Richard A. Ashley & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification in Phillips Curve Regressions: Quantifying Frequency Dependence in This Relationship While Allowing for Feedback," Working Papers e06-11, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7arg7blugi9b2o08qjafcpg8e2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Robert W. Fairlie, 2006. "The Personal Computer and Entrepreneurship," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 187-203, February.
    13. Andrew Figura, 2011. "Have cyclical movements in the unemployment rate become more persistent?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
    15. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 2019. "Understanding Trends in Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States," NBER Working Papers 25425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    17. Murat Tasci, 2010. "The ins and outs of unemployment in the long run: a new estimate for the natural rate?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    18. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Leora Friedberg & Anthony Webb, 2006. "Persistence in Labor Supply and the Response to the Social Security Earnings Test," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-27, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2006.
    20. Rodrigo Melo Gois & Marco Antonio Jorge, 2017. "Investigating the Okun’s Law in Brazil and three of its Metropolitan Areas," Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), Mackenzie Presbyterian University, Social and Applied Sciences Center, vol. 14(1), pages 24-58, January-J.
    21. Richard A. Ashley. & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification and Frequency Dependence in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers e06-12, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2004:i:qii:p:21-35:n:v.28no.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.