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Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata

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  • Julie L. Hotchkiss
  • John C. Robertson

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the microfoundations of the observed asymmetric movement in aggregate unemployment rates. Using U.S. data, we find that individual labor force participation responds asymmetrically to changes in local labor market conditions, consistent with the pattern of movements in the aggregate unemployment rate. Differences in the asymmetry and sensitivity of labor force participation decisions are found across gender, age, and education groups, and these differences are used to anticipate changes in the aggregate movements as population characteristics change over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-08
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    8. Lisa Barrow, 2004. "Is the official unemployment rate misleading? a look at labor market statistics over the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 21-35.
    9. Rebecca M. Blank & Heidi Shierholz, 2006. "Exploring Gender Differences in Employment and Wage Trends Among Less-Skilled Workers," NBER Working Papers 12494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    2. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts, 2007. "Evidence of demand factors in the determination of the labor market intermittency penalty," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Hotchkiss, Julie L. & Pitts, M. Melinda & Walker, Mary Beth, 2011. "To work or not to work: the economics of a mother's dilemma," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. John K. Dagsvik & Tom Kornstad & Terje Skjerpen, 2016. "Discouraged worker effects and barriers against employment for immigrant and non-immigrant women," Discussion Papers 845, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Néstor Iván GONZALEZ-QUINTERO & Nancy Aireth DAZA-BAEZ & Nidia Esperanza GARAVITO-CALDERON, 2014. "Determinantes y perfiles de la participación laboral en Colombia: 2002-2013," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 011788, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    6. Julie Hotchkiss & M. Pitts & Mary Walker, 2011. "Labor force exit decisions of new mothers," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 397-414, September.
    7. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Mary Beth Walker, 2010. "Assessing the impact of education and marriage on labor market exit decisions of women," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Jean Kimmel, 2009. "Moonlighting Over The Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 754-765, October.
    9. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Mary Beth Walker, 2008. "Working with children? the probability of mothers exiting the workforce at time of birth," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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