Disinflation and the NAIRU in a New-Keynesian New-Growth Model
Unemployment in the big continental European economies like France and Germany has been substantially increasing since the mid 1970s. So far it has been difficult to empirically explain the increase in unemployment in these countries via changes in supposedly employment unfriendly institutions like the generosity and duration of unemployment benefits. At the same time, there is some evidence produced by Ball (1996, 1999) saying that tight monetary policy during the disinflations of the 1980s caused a subsequent increase in the NAIRU, and that there is a relationship between the increase in the NAIRU and the size of the disinflation during that period across advanced OECD economies. There is also mounting evidence suggesting a role of the slowdown in productivity growth, e.g. Nickell et al. (2005), IMF (2003), Blanchard and Wolfers (2000). This paper introduces endogenous growth into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and unemployment. We subject the model to a cost push shock lasting for 1 quarter, in order to mimic a scenario akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinflation by following a standard interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a Bundesbank reaction function. About 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment is still about 1.7 percentage points above its steady state, while annual productivity growth has decreased. Over a similar horizon, a higher weight on the output gap increases employment (i.e. reduces the fall in employment below its steady state). Thus the model generates an increase in unemployment following a disinflation without relying on a change to labour market structure. We are also able to coarsely reproduce cross country differences in unemployment. A higher disinflation generated by a larger cost push shock causes a stronger persistent increase in unemployment, the correlation noted by Ball. For a given cost push shock, a policy rule estimated for the Bundesbank produces stronger persistent increase in unemployment than a policy rule estimated for the Federal Reserve. Testable differences in real wage rigidity between continental Europe and the United States, namely the presence of the labour share in the wage setting function for Europe with a negative coefficient but it's absence in the U.S. also imply different unemployment outcomes following a cost push shock: If the real wage does not depend on the labour share, the persistent increase in unemployment is about one percentage point smaller than in it's presence. To the extent that the wage setting structure is due to labour market rigidities, "Shocks and Institutions" jointly determine the unemployment outcome, as suggested by Blanchard and Wolfers (2000). We also perform a comparison of the second moments of key variables of the model with German data for a period ranging from 1970 to 1990. We find that it matches the data better than a model without endogenous growth but with otherwise identical features. This is particularly true for the persistence in employment as measured by first and higher order autocorrelation coefficients.
|Date of creation:||08 Jun 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000.
"The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
- Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean-Pierre Danthine & André Kurmann, 2003.
"Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle,"
Cahiers de recherche
- Jean-Pierre Danthine & Andre Kurmann, 2004. "Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 107-142, January.
- Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Kurmann, Andre, 2002. "Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3423, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & André KURMANN, 2002. "Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 02.10, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Belot, Michèle & van Ours, Jan C, 2000.
"Does the Recent Success of some OECD Countries in Lowering their Unemployment Rates lie in the Clever Design of their Labour Market Reforms?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michèle Belot & Jan C. van Ours, 2004. "Does the recent success of some OECD countries in lowering their unemployment rates lie in the clever design of their labor market reforms?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 621-642, October.
- Belot, Michèle & van Ours, Jan C., 2000. "Does the Recent Success of Some OECD Countries in Lowering their Unemployment Rates Lie in the Clever Design of their Labour Market Reform?," IZA Discussion Papers 147, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Belot, M.V.K. & van Ours, J.C., 2000. "Does the Recent Success of some OECD Countries in Lowering their Unemployment Rates lie in the Clever Design of their Labour Market Reforms?," Discussion Paper 2000-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Dani Rodrik, 1996.
"Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?,"
NBER Working Papers
5537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997.
"The European Unemployment Dilemma,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
178, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1995. "The European unemployment dilemma," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1996. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 36, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Working Paper Series 481, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Fitoussi, J-P & Jestaz, D. & Phelps, E.S. & Zoega, G., 2000.
"Roots of the Recent Recoveries : Labor Reforms or Private-Sector Forces ?,"
Documents de Travail de l'OFCE
2000-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S. Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 237-311.
- Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Post-Print hal-01011185, HAL.
- Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5571, Sciences Po.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999.
"Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
- Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008.
"Labour markets and firm-specific capital in New Keynesian general equilibrium models,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 817-843, September.
- Charles Nolan & Christoph Thoenissen, 2005. "Labour Markets and Firm-Specific Capital in New Keynesian General Equilibrium Models," CDMA Working Paper Series 200501, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 May 2005.
- Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
- Bruno Tissot & Les Skoczylas, 2005. "Revisiting recent productivity developments across OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 182, Bank for International Settlements.
- Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001.
"Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261 Elsevier.
- Andrew Glyn, 2003.
"Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment: A Critical Assessment of the Cross-Country Evidence,"
Economics Series Working Papers
168, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Dean Baker & Andrew Glyn & David Howell & John Schmitt, 2002. "Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment: A Critical Assessment of the Cross-Country Evidence," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2002-17, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
- Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
- Bewley, Truman F., 1998. "Why not cut pay?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 459-490, May.
- Jordi Gali, 2002.
"New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle,"
NBER Working Papers
8767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 2007. "Understanding European unemployment with matching and search-island models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2139-2179, November.
- Christopher A. Pissarides & Giovanna Vallanti, 2007.
"The Impact Of Tfp Growth On Steady-State Unemployment,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 607-640, 05.
- Pissarides, Christopher & Vallanti, Giovanna, 2005. "The Impact of TFP Growth on Steady-State Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5002, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 176, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Laurence M. Ball, 1997.
"Disinflation and the NAIRU,"
in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hahn, Frank, 1990. "On Inflation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 15-25, Winter.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999.
"The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Costs,"
NBER Working Papers
6909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
- Daniele Checchi & Claudio Lucifora, 2002.
"Unions and labour market institutions in Europe,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 361-408, October.
- Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1992.
"Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 395-431, June.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0171, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9346. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.