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NAIRU estimates in transitional economy with extremely high unemployment rate: the case of the Republic of Macedonia

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  • Trpeski, Predrag
  • Tevdovski, Dragan

Abstract

The paper provides time-varying NAIRU estimates for Macedonian economy for the period 1998-2012, which were obtained using Ball and Mankiw (2002) approach and additionally supplemented with iterative procedure proposed by Ball (2009). The results revealed that the Macedonian NAIRU has the hump-shaped path: the estimated NAIRU is 23.5 percent in the second quarter of 1998, peaks at 28.3 percent in the last quarter of 2005 and falls to 23.6 percent in the last quarter of 2012. The estimation is based on the corrected LFS unemployment rate for the employment in the grey economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Trpeski, Predrag & Tevdovski, Dragan, 2014. "NAIRU estimates in transitional economy with extremely high unemployment rate: the case of the Republic of Macedonia," MPRA Paper 56374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56374
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56374/1/MPRA_paper_56374.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    7. Kavkler, Alenka & Danacica, Daniela-Emanuela & Babucea, Ana Gabriela & Bicanic, Ivo & Bohm, Bernhard & Tevdovski, Dragan & Tosevska, Katerina & Borsic, Darja, 2009. "Cox Regression Models for Unemployment Duration in Romania, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, and Macedonia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 81-104, June.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; unemployment; inflation; Macedonia;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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