The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela: some results and challenges
This paper summarises the research results obtained by the group of central banks (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela) that joined the research program on the Natural Rate of Unemployment – under the coordination of the Central Bank of Brazil – within the Joint Investigation on Non Observable Variables Project, and whose final results were presented at the XII Meeting of the Network of America Central Bank Researchers (CEMLA) held at Madrid in November 2007. The evidence obtained shows that the natural rate of unemployment is estimated with great uncertainty: besides sizable parameter uncertainty, estimates are very sensitive to the particular method used. This marked imprecision reflects the difficulties and challenges involved in the natural rate’s estimation. Nonetheless, the research also shows that there seems to be much room available for improvement, especially those stemming from a more careful modelling process and better care with the data, particularly regarding supply shocks proxies, given their importance in inflation dynamics. Indeed, this “channel” seems to be the most promising one to both narrow down the uncertainty about the NAIRU and improve the reliability of inferences.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002.
"Evaluating FOMC forecasts,"
2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997.
"How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?,"
in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002.
"The NAIRU in Theory and Practice,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers 8940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Economics Working Paper Archive 475, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, .
"Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005),"
Borradores de Economia
453, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2007. "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004021, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Jorge E. Restrepo, 2008. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 492-516 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.