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The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela: Some Results and Challenges

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  • Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho

Abstract

This paper summarises the research results obtained by the group of central banks (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela) that joined the research program on the Natural Rate of Unemployment – under the coordination of the Central Bank of Brazil – within the Joint Investigation on Non Observable Variables Project, and whose final results were presented at the XII Meeting of the Network of America Central Bank Researchers (CEMLA) held at Madrid in November 2007. The evidence obtained shows that the natural rate of unemployment is estimated with great uncertainty: besides sizable parameter uncertainty, estimates are very sensitive to the particular method used. This marked imprecision reflects the difficulties and challenges involved in the natural rate’s estimation. Nonetheless, the research also shows that there seems to be much room available for improvement, especially those stemming from a more careful modelling process and better care with the data, particularly regarding supply shocks proxies, given their importance in inflation dynamics. Indeed, this “channel” seems to be the most promising one to both narrow down the uncertainty about the NAIRU and improve the reliability of inferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2010. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela: Some Results and Challenges," Working Papers Series 212, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:212
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps212.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    3. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2008. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Unemployment in a Large Relative Price Shocks' Economy: the Brazilian Case," Working Papers Series 163, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)," Borradores de Economia 453, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 53-69.
    8. Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
    9. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    10. Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-243, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andre de Queiroz Brunelli, 2014. "Two Decades of Structural Shifts in the Brazilian Labor Market: assessing the unemployment rate changes through stylized facts on labor supply and labor demand," Working Papers Series 348, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Pavel Tuleja & Michal Tvrdoň, 2011. "The Czech labour market after the crisis of a real economy: negative development or return to steady-state?," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 477-488.
    3. Michal Tvrdoň, 2015. "Decomposition of Unemployment: The Case of the Visegrad group countries," Working Papers 0005, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.

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