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Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Andrés Felipe García

    ()

Se estima una NAIRU que cambia en el tiempo de acuerdo con la composición de la fuerza laboral. Bajo este enfoque la NAIRU promedio para el período 1984- 2005 es 11,9%. Además, dada la existencia de metas de inflación, estimamos una curva de Phillips ampliada con una regla de formación de expectativas de inflación que tiene en cuenta tales metas. Esta estimación permitió calcular la "tasa de desempleo compatible con una inflación igual a la meta" (TADECIM) la cual también es cambiante en el tiempo. Su nivel promedio es 15% para el período 1911-2005.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 453.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:453
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  1. Jairo Núnez & Raquel Bernal, 1997. "El Desempleo En Colombia: Tasa Natural, Desempleo Cíclico Y Estructural Y La Duración Del Desempleo, (1976-1998)," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
  3. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés Felipe García & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "La metodología de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares y el empalme de las series del mercado laboral urbano de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 410, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  6. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación Estructural Y Análisis De La Curva De Phillips Neokeynesiana Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003085, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
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